Round 23 at the M.C.G. delivered an intriguing clash as Essendon hosted the Sydney Swans on Sun, 16 Aug, 4:40 pm AEST. Coming off a heavy 50–117 loss against Geelong Cats on Sat, 8 Aug, the Dons were looking for a late-season spark, while the visitors arrived with momentum following a resounding 167–70 win against Port Adelaide on Sat, 8 Aug.
When the final siren sounded, it was the Swans who walked away with the points, converting their strong ladder position into a 112–76 victory over Essendon. Punter expectations were heavily leaning toward the visitors, and while the Dons showed some fight, the class of the Sydney outfit ultimately told across the four quarters.
Match Analysis and Market Movements
Pre-match punters sizing up the markets saw the Sydney Swans heavily favoured in the head-to-head at 1.01, whilst Essendon sat as the 12.6 outsiders. On the total points front, the market proved particularly active leading into the bounce: the over moved from 2.15–1.85 (firmed), whilst the under drifted from 1.7–1.95 (drifted).
Essendon's season stats have reflected a tough campaign with an average of 68.5 points for and 107.9 against, and their recent form line of LLLLW highlights the uphill battle they faced against a side sitting second on the ladder. Meanwhile, the Swans continued their potent scoring ways, backing up their recent big win with another solid offensive display at the M.C.G.
How the tips went
Looking back at our published selections for the clash, the head-to-head tip on the Sydney Swans (priced at 1.02) got the job done as the visitors secured the 112–76 victory.
However, our second tip on the line market (Sydney Swans -61.5 at 1.9) fell short as the Dons kept the margin within the boundary of the final 36-point difference, resulting in a loss for that particular selection.