PNC Park tips: Pirates ride five-straight into Cardinals clash

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on Friday, 25 September, with first pitch at 2:35 am AEST. It's a clash between two National League Central rivals headed in opposite directions — the Pirates arrive on a five-game winning streak, all at home, while the Cardinals are licking their wounds after a two-run shutout loss in this very building two nights ago.

Pittsburgh sit third in the division with a 80–77 record (.510), 18 games back but playing their best baseball of the month. St. Louis are fourth at 76–81 (.484), 22 games adrift and struggling to find consistency. The Pirates have won four of the past five meetings between these two, including that 2–0 blanking on Wednesday night, and they'll fancy their chances of making it six straight home victories when Paul Skenes takes the ball against Kyle Leahy.

Who gets the chocolates at PNC Park?

The Pirates are scorching. Coming off that 2–0 shutout of St. Louis on Wednesday, they've reeled off five consecutive wins, all at PNC Park — victories over the Brewers, three against the Royals, then the Cardinals. Across those five starts they've averaged 5.4 runs scored and conceded just 3.4, winning by an average margin of two runs. The form line reads WWWWW, and the energy around this group is palpable.

The Cardinals, by contrast, are coming off that shutout defeat and have dropped four of their past five. Their last five starts show them averaging 3.2 runs for and 5.6 against — a recipe for trouble when you're on the road. They did manage a 5–3 win over Washington in their second-most-recent outing, but either side of that they've leaked runs (9, 8, and 6 in three of those losses) and failed to capitalise at the plate.

When these two met on Wednesday it was a pitcher's duel that the Pirates claimed 2–0. That result sits in a recent head-to-head ledger that heavily favours Pittsburgh: four wins from the past five meetings, including a 6–2 hammering in August and a 5–4 thriller the start before that. The Cardinals' lone win in that stretch was a 4–1 result back in August, but the overall pattern is clear — Pittsburgh have had St. Louis's measure this season, and the average combined score across those five clashes is 6.4 runs.

The Pirates are $1.62 favourites on the head-to-head market, with the Cardinals out at $2.31. Paul Skenes gets the start for the home side, while Kyle Leahy takes the ball for St. Louis. The form, the venue, and the recent history all point one way, and our mlb tips lean towards the Pirates to continue their winning run.

Can the Cardinals cover the 1.5-run line?

The Pirates are laying 1.5 runs on the line market, priced at $2.45, with the Cardinals getting the 1.5-run start at $1.55. Pittsburgh's recent home form suggests they can win by multiple runs — they've won their past five at PNC Park by margins of 3, 3, 1, 1, and 2, averaging a two-run winning margin across that sample. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lost their past four by margins of 2, 3, 8, and 1 in their last five outings, averaging a 3.5-run defeat when they go down.

St. Louis managed just four runs across their past four home games before travelling to Pittsburgh, and on the road they were blanked 2–0 in their most recent start. The gap in quality between these two lineups right now is stark, and the Pirates have shown they can put opponents away — eight runs against the Royals, seven against the Brewers, six in another Royals clash. The Cardinals, by comparison, have managed more than five runs just once in their past five.

The line feels tight given the form gulf, but Pittsburgh's knack for grinding out close wins (three of their past five by one or two runs) makes laying the 1.5 a proposition that requires some faith in a blowout. The value might sit with the Cardinals getting the start, purely as a safeguard against another tight contest.

Over or under 6.5 runs?

The total is set at 6.5 runs, with the over priced at $1.75 and the under at $2.05. The recent head-to-head average combined score sits at 6.4 runs, just shy of the line, and Wednesday's result was a 2–0 shutout that came in well under. The Pirates have been averaging 5.4 runs for and 3.4 against across their past five, a combined 8.8 runs per game, but that sample includes some shootouts — 8–5, 7–4, 6–5 — that skew the numbers.

The Cardinals, however, have been anaemic at the plate. They've managed 3.2 runs per game across their past five starts and haven't cracked six in any of those outings. When you marry their offensive drought with Pittsburgh's ability to keep the Cardinals scoreless two nights ago, the case for the under starts to firm. The pitching matchup — Paul Skenes for the Pirates and Kyle Leahy for St. Louis — could tilt either way, but the recent form and the Wednesday shutout suggest another low-scoring affair might be on the cards.

The under at $2.05 feels the play, leaning on the Cardinals' struggles to score and the possibility that Skenes can keep them quiet again.

Same Game Multi options

If you're chasing a Same Game Multi, a few priced combos are doing the rounds. Cardinals to win, Under 7.5 total runs, and Cardinals to win the first inning is available at $12, though backing the Cardinals to win feels a stretch given their form. Pirates to win, Over 4.5 Pirates total runs, and O. Cruz to hit one or more home runs is priced at $8.50 and leans into Pittsburgh's offensive upside.

Another option is Over 9.5 total runs, O. Cruz to hit one or more home runs, and Alec Burleson to hit one or more home runs at $41 — a long-odds play banking on a high-scoring affair and some fireworks from the sluggers. The combos are there if you fancy threading a narrative together, but the single-market plays feel cleaner given the form gulf between these two sides.