Busch Stadium: Wheeler aims to silence Cardinals in rubber match

The Cardinals and Phillies square off at Busch Stadium on Thursday, 13 August at 4:15 am AEST, with the series locked at one apiece and plenty still to play for. St. Louis is treading water at .500 (60–60) in third place in the National League Central, 14 games back, while Philadelphia sits at .529 (64–57) in second in the NL East, 8.5 games adrift. The Phillies come in as favourites despite dropping the most recent contest 0–2 on Wednesday, and Zack Wheeler takes the ball looking to right the ship after that shutout loss. Kyle Leahy gets the start for the Cardinals, who are coming off a 2–0 win to level the ledger.

St. Louis enter this one with three wins in their last five, all at home, having split a pair with the Phillies and taken three of five from Colorado the week prior. Their recent form reads three wins, two losses, with an average of 4.6 runs for and 4.0 against across that stretch. Philadelphia are 2–3 in their last five overall, having also split a three-game set at home against Toronto before flying to St. Louis. They've averaged 4.4 runs scored and 5.0 allowed over those five starts, a touch leakier than the Cardinals on the road.

Who will win at Busch Stadium?

The Cardinals are coming off that 2–0 shutout on Wednesday — a rare clean sheet that snapped a run of alternating results at home. Before that, they'd gone W–L–W–L–W at Busch Stadium, including a couple of tight one-run victories and a pair of two-run defeats. They've won three of their last five at home, with an average winning margin of two runs and an average loss margin of 1.5 runs, so they've been competitive even in the losses. Philadelphia's last outing, by contrast, was that Wednesday blanking — they managed zero runs on the scoreboard and are now on a one-game skid after winning back-to-back against Toronto and the Cardinals (6–5 on Tuesday).

The two most recent meetings this week tell an interesting tale: St. Louis won 2–0 on Wednesday and lost 5–6 on Tuesday, both at Busch. Over the two clashes, the combined run total has averaged 6.5 runs per game, a touch below the quoted total for Thursday morning. The Cardinals have defended their home patch reasonably well, even if the record is a mixed bag, while the Phillies showed on Tuesday they can score at Busch Stadium when the bats come alive. Philadelphia's season record of 64–57 is superior to St. Louis' 60–60, and the visitors sit as favourites on the head-to-head market despite the Wednesday setback.

Zack Wheeler is the probable pitcher for the Phillies, with Kyle Leahy slated to take the ball for St. Louis. Wheeler will be keen to bounce back after the Phillies were shut out in his last start, while Leahy gets a chance to build on the Cardinals' momentum at home. The favouritism reflects Philadelphia's stronger overall position in the standings and their ability to produce runs — they've scored 534 on the year compared to St. Louis' 522, and they've conceded one fewer run on aggregate (535 allowed versus 529).

Can the Cardinals cover the 1.5-run line?

St. Louis are getting a 1.5-run start on the line market, which means they need to either win outright or lose by a single run to cover. Their recent home form suggests they can keep it tight: across their last five at Busch Stadium, they've won by an average of two runs and lost by an average of 1.5 runs. Two of those five contests were decided by a single run (3–2 win over Colorado, 5–6 loss to Philadelphia), and another was a two-run margin (the 2–0 shutout on Wednesday). That profile fits neatly with a 1.5-run cushion.

Philadelphia's last five overall have seen them win by an average of one run and lose by an average of 1.7 runs, so they've been involved in tight games as well. The Phillies' three recent away starts in this sample include the 0–2 loss on Wednesday and the 6–5 win on Tuesday at Busch Stadium — both decided by narrow margins. Given the pattern of close finishes and the Cardinals' home resilience, the 1.5-run line shapes as a genuine contest. St. Louis +1.5 offers a little breathing room for the home side, while Philadelphia –1.5 would require the visitors to win by at least two runs, which they've managed just once in the last five (the 7–5 road win over Toronto on 10 August).

Over or under 8.5 runs?

The total for this clash sits at 8.5 runs, and the recent form suggests it could go either way. St. Louis have averaged 4.6 runs for and 4.0 against in their last five, which adds up to 8.6 runs per game — just a whisker over the line. Philadelphia have averaged 4.4 for and 5.0 against over the same stretch, totalling 9.4 runs per game, which leans toward the over. The two head-to-head meetings this week produced 13 runs on Tuesday (6–5) and just 2 runs on Wednesday (2–0), averaging 7.5 combined — a tick under the 8.5 mark when you factor in both games.

However, the average total from those two recent clashes is 6.5 runs, well below the quoted line. Wednesday's shutout skews that number lower, but it also shows both pitching staffs are capable of clamping down when they find rhythm. The Cardinals have allowed four runs per game at home in their last five, and the Phillies have conceded five per game overall in the same sample, so there's enough offensive firepower on both sides to threaten the over if the bats heat up. Zack Wheeler will be desperate to limit the damage after the Wednesday blanking, while Kyle Leahy will aim to replicate the Cardinals' recent pitching success at Busch Stadium. The total feels like a coin flip, but the under has appeal given the low-scoring finish to the previous game and the pitchers' chance to set the tone early.

Same Game Multi angles

For punters chasing a bigger payout, a few Same Game Multi options are on the board for this one. The most ambitious combo is Over 10.5 total runs in the match, Alec Burleson to hit 1+ home runs and Bryce Harper to hit 1+ home runs at $41. That's a long-odds play requiring both offences to fire and a pair of big bats to clear the fence — not impossible given Harper's pedigree and Burleson's form, but it needs everything to click.

A more measured Cardinals-leaning SGM is Cardinals to win, Over 4.5 Cardinals total runs in the match and Alec Burleson to hit 1+ home runs at $10. That one banks on St. Louis putting together a productive night at the plate and Burleson delivering a power stroke. On the flip side, Phillies to win, Over 8.5 total runs in the match and Phillies to win the 1st inning sits at $7, which assumes Philadelphia grab an early lead and the run total climbs past the quoted line. These parlays offer variety depending on which side of the contest you favour, but they all carry the risk inherent in multi-leg bets — one piece fails and the ticket is toast.