Nationals Park rematch: Herz and Manaea duel as division rivals square off

The Washington Nationals and New York Mets square off at Nationals Park on Monday, 28 Sept at 5:05 am AEST, just two days after their last encounter at the same venue. The Nationals edged the Mets 7–6 on Saturday, and now the two NL East cellar-dwellers go at it again with DJ Herz on the bump for Washington and Sean Manaea for New York.

Both sides are well out of playoff contention — the Nationals sit fourth in the division at 76–84 (.475, 17.0 games back), while the Mets occupy the basement at 73–87 (.456, 20.0 games back). Still, there's plenty of yarn in this one: Washington has won three straight and will be keen to keep the run going, while the Mets are smarting from back-to-back losses and looking to salvage some pride in the season's final week. The head-to-head market has both sides locked at 1.91, so the bookies see this as a genuine coin-flip.

Who will win the rematch?

The Nationals are coming off that thrilling one-run victory over the Mets on Saturday, their third win on the trot. Before that, they swept a pair from Detroit on the road (4–2 and 3–1) after dropping two straight to the Tigers and Cardinals. Over their last five, Washington has averaged 3.8 runs scored and 4.6 runs allowed, with wins typically coming by a margin of 1.7 runs and losses by 4.5. The Nationals have been mildly outscored across that sample, but they've found a way to win the tight ones.

The Mets, by contrast, are licking their wounds after Saturday's narrow defeat in DC and a 1–3 loss to Texas the night before. Their last five outings read L, L, W, W, L — they took a pair from the Rangers (7–2 and 6–3) in mid-week before dropping the last two. Over that stretch, New York has averaged 4.4 runs for and 4.4 against, with wins coming by an average of four runs and losses by 2.7. The Mets have been the more balanced offensive unit, but they've also been prone to flat performances when the bats go quiet.

The head-to-head ledger slightly favours New York over the season. In their five meetings in 2026, the Mets have won three — including a 4–1 drubbing and a pair of tight one-run victories in August. Saturday's 7–6 result was the Nationals' second win of the series, and the only other Washington victory came via a 2–1 loss in May (where the Mets edged them). The average combined total across those five games sits at 7.4 runs, so punters can expect another relatively low-scoring affair.

DJ Herz gets the nod for the Nationals, while Sean Manaea takes the hill for the Mets. Both are experienced arms, and in a market priced at 1.91 apiece, there's not much separating the two sides on paper. Our mlb picks lean toward the Nationals based on current form: Washington's three-game winning streak and home momentum give them a whisker of an edge, even if the Mets have owned the season series. It's a punter's toss-up, but we'll back the home side to keep the run going.

The betting verdict

With both teams in the NL East basement and the season winding down, this rematch at Nationals Park is all about momentum and pride. The Nationals are riding a three-game winning streak and have the benefit of home soil, while the Mets are smarting from consecutive defeats and looking to turn the tide. The head-to-head market at 1.91 each side reflects just how tight this one shapes up, and the bookies aren't willing to split them.

We're backing the Nationals to make it four straight, but there's no guarantee in a contest this even. DJ Herz will need to keep the Mets' bats quiet, and Washington's offence will need to find a way past Sean Manaea. It's a low-confidence play in a coin-flip market, but the recent form and home advantage tip the scales ever so slightly in the Nationals' favour.