England meet Sri Lanka at Gaddafi Stadium on Thursday night (7:00 pm AEDT) with plenty to prove after a ragged month that's seen them drop three of their last four starts. The hosts have firmed from $1.45 to $1.38 in the last day despite that miserable run, while the visitors have drifted from $2.78 to $3.07 after stringing together consecutive victories.
It's a curious market move given the recent form lines, but punters backing England are likely banking on a pride response after the side fell agonisingly short chasing 242 against Pakistan last Sunday — bowled out for 241 with three overs still in hand. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, are coming off a comfortable seven-wicket win over the same opposition on Tuesday, knocking off 111 inside 19 overs to cap a tidy fortnight.
Who will win?
England's recent record makes grim reading: three losses on the trot, including that heartbreaker against Pakistan and a stunning collapse at home to Sri Lanka on 22 October, when they posted 429 for four chasing 430 but couldn't find the five runs needed in the final over. Before that, they were rolled for 215 chasing 303 against Pakistan. The one bright spot in the last five was a 223-run demolition of Sri Lanka at home on 27 September, defending 355 and skittling the tourists for just 132.
Sri Lanka's form line tells a different story. They've won two straight — that clinical chase against Pakistan and the extraordinary 430-run heist at England's expense a week ago. Across their last five they're 3–2, with losses to Pakistan (chasing 306) and that 223-run hammering by England sandwiched between three wins. The head-to-head ledger tilts England's way recently: four meetings since September have produced two wins apiece, though Sri Lanka claimed the most recent encounter in that breathless run-fest.
The market has England as clear favourites at $1.38, and that firming suggests confidence the hosts will bounce back on home turf. Sri Lanka's drift to $3.07 reflects doubts they can make it three in a row, despite their superior current momentum. For punters weighing these cricket tips, it's a case of backing England's class against Sri Lanka's rhythm — and the money is flowing toward the former.
Tipped at $1.38 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
The yarn from Lahore
This match shapes as a redemption mission for England, who'll be stinging from that two-run failure against Pakistan. Chasing modest totals has been their Achilles heel — 242 should have been gettable, as should 303 a week earlier. The 430 chase was always a moonshot, but to get within a boundary and fall short will haunt the dressing room. Thursday night is the chance to wipe the slate.
Sri Lanka, on the other hand, arrive with quiet confidence. Chasing 111 was routine work, but chasing 430 and getting there with a ball to spare was the stuff of legend. They've shown they can win ugly and win pretty, and they'll fancy another crack at an England attack that's leaked runs in four of the last five. The challenge is whether their bowlers can apply enough pressure in Lahore's typically flat conditions — defending has not been their forte.