Five matches down, series tied at 2–2, and the whole yarn comes down to a Sunday-morning shootout at M.Chinnaswamy Stadium. India host West Indies in the 5th T20I from 12:30 am AEDT on Sunday, with the prize for the winner clear: a series triumph in one of the most entertaining T20 contests punters have seen this year.
Four of the first five matches were settled by razor margins—the closest by just one run—and both sides have shared the spoils in Bengaluru already this series. The see-sawing scoreboard tells the story: India won the opener by two runs chasing 172, dropped the second match by three runs chasing 250, then took the third by 14 runs defending 223. West Indies levelled the ledger on Thursday night with a 24-run win chasing 248, meaning it all hangs in the balance for the decider.
India's mostrecent outing ended in that loss—223 all out in 19.3 overs chasing 248—so they come into this one needing a response. West Indies, meanwhile, arrive with the wind in their sails after chasing down that target with wickets and balls in hand. Both line-ups have been road-testing their squads in the same conditions all series, and familiarity with the pitch and the opposition only sharpens the edge.
Who will win the decider?
India's last five at home paint a picture of high-octane cricket and narrow margins. Three wins from five, all at home soil, with the two losses both coming against these same West Indies opponents. The wins were built on successful defences—211, 172, and 223—but the defeats came when they couldn't quite reel in steep chases of 250 and 248. Coming off that most recent loss on Thursday, India will be keen to bounce back in front of their home crowd.
West Indies have won three of their last five overall—two of those victories against India in the past fortnight—and their confidence is riding high. Their last start was that 24-run win on Thursday, chasing down 248 with seven balls to spare and only three wickets down. Before that, they'd lost a tight one on Monday (defending 209 and falling 14 runs short) and won the second match of the series by three runs chasing 250. The visitors have shown they can post and defend big totals on Indian decks, and their batting depth has been the difference in tight moments.
The most recent meeting is still fresh: West Indies 247 for 3 in reply to India's 223 all out, a 24-run margin that flattered the hosts' total. Before that, India won by 14 runs defending 223, then West Indies chased 250 to win by three runs, and India successfully defended 172 by two runs in the series opener. The pattern across the head-to-head ledger is clear—scores have been big, margins have been small, and the side batting second has won three of the four completed games.
On the head-to-head market, India sit at 1.34 with West Indies out at 3.29. The home side are short favourites despite the loss last start, and that price suggests the market still leans toward Indian firepower and home advantage. For punters weighing up our cricket tips, the question is whether West Indies can back up Thursday's statement win or whether India's quality at home reasserts itself when it matters most.
Tipped at $1.34 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
The story in the stats
India's home form across their last five outings shows three wins and two losses, all against quality opposition. The successful defences were built around totals in the low-to-mid 200s, but both defeats came when set steep targets north of 245. West Indies, by contrast, have won three of their last five overall and two of those wins have come chasing big totals in India—252 and 247—which tells you everything about their confidence with bat in hand.
The head-to-head series average paints a picture of high-scoring affairs: across the five meetings between these sides since March, totals have regularly cleared 220 and the chasing side has thrived. India's ability to post competitive scores at home is not in doubt, but West Indies have shown they can hunt down anything on these wickets if their top order fires.
With the series locked at 2–2 and the decider looming, this shapes as a match where small moments—a dropped catch, a mistimed sweep, a couple of wides in the death—could swing the outcome. Both sides know the conditions, both have match-winners, and both have recent wins over the other to lean on. It's as even a contest as punters could ask for, and the margins will likely be just as tight as they've been all series.
Our selections for the 5th T20I
We're leaning toward India at the short quote. West Indies have been exceptional in the chase twice this series, but India's home record across five matches still shows three wins, and the home side will be motivated to respond after Thursday's defeat. The market has India as clear favourites despite the recent loss, and we think that reflects the underlying quality and home advantage. It's an opinion call in a tight series, but India get the nod to level the ledger and take the trophy.
This one should be another belter at the Chinnaswamy, and punters looking for a yarn to follow will get plenty of it. Both line-ups have firepower, both have momentum from recent wins, and both know exactly what the other brings. Our tip is India to win, framed as a medium-confidence play given the see-sawing nature of the series and West Indies' proven ability to chase big totals in these conditions.