Honda Center tips: Ducks flying high as Penguins limp into Anaheim

The Anaheim Ducks welcome the Pittsburgh Penguins to Honda Center on Monday 9 November at 12:00 pm AEDT with form lines heading in opposite directions. The Ducks roll in on the back of four consecutive wins — including a 5–3 victory over Calgary on Saturday — and sit ninth in the Western Conference with a 9-7-1 record. Pittsburgh, by contrast, are mired in a rough patch: they've dropped four on the spin and stand dead last in the league at 5-9-2, seventh in the Metropolitan Division.

Anaheim have found plenty of scoreboard run during their hot streak, potting 5.4 goals per game across their last five outings while conceding 4.2. The Penguins are going the other way — just 2.8 goals for and 4.0 against over the same sample — and their last start was a 2–6 shellacking at home to Boston on Friday. With the Ducks coming off a road win and the Penguins struggling to keep the puck out of their own net, this shapes as a compelling mismatch on paper.

Who will win?

The Ducks' recent surge has been built on offensive firepower. They've scored five or more goals in four of their last five — wins over Calgary (5–3), Edmonton (5–4), Vancouver (5–4), and Ottawa (6–3) — and the form line reads like a highlight reel. Leo Carlsson leads the scoresheet for Anaheim with six goals and twenty assists, Beckett Sennecke has chipped in ten goals and eleven helpers, and Jackson LaCombe anchors the blue line with one goal and eighteen assists. The power play is clicking at 36.07 per cent, and the Ducks are averaging 3.76 goals per game on the season.

Pittsburgh's numbers tell a grimmer story. Over their last five they're averaging just 2.8 goals for against 4.0 against, and that 2–6 loss to Boston dropped them to a league-worst 5-9-2. Erik Karlsson (three goals, thirteen assists), Thomas Novak (five goals, seven assists), and Evgeni Malkin (six goals, five assists) are the Penguins' leading scorers, but the collective output has dried up — they're managing 3.13 goals per game for the season and the power play is limping along at 17.78 per cent. The penalty kill sits at a respectable 82.5 per cent, but when you're conceding 3.56 goals per game and can't find the net yourself, special teams only paper over so many cracks.

The Ducks sit as favourites at home, and it's hard to argue. Coming off a win and riding four straight, they've got the scoreboard momentum and the better record. Pittsburgh are coming off that heavy loss and haven't won since late October. Our nhl predictions lean towards Anaheim to get the job done in regulation or overtime.

Can the Ducks cover the puck line?

The puck line has Anaheim laying 1.5 goals, which asks them to win by two or more. Over their last five, the Ducks have won four times by an average margin of 1.8 goals — two-goal wins over Calgary and Ottawa, one-goal squeakers against Edmonton and Vancouver. That's tight when you need a two-goal cushion, but Pittsburgh's recent form offers some hope: they've lost four straight by an average of 1.8 goals, including that four-goal mauling by Boston.

The Penguins' season-long defensive woes — 3.56 goals against per game and a save percentage of 87.2 — suggest they're vulnerable to a blowout if Anaheim's attack fires. The Ducks' power play and the ability to put up five or more goals in a game make the spread worth considering, though it's not without risk given how many of their recent wins have been decided by a single goal.

Total goals

The total sits at 6.5 goals. Anaheim have been a goals factory in their last five — 5.4 for, 4.2 against, for a combined average of 9.6 goals per game. Pittsburgh are averaging 2.8 for and 4.0 against over the same stretch, which adds up to 6.8 goals per contest. Put the two sides together and you'd expect something in the neighbourhood of seven or eight goals, which points towards the over.

The Ducks' season average is 3.76 goals for and 3.76 against (7.52 combined), while Pittsburgh sit at 3.13 for and 3.56 against (6.69 combined). Both sides leak goals — Anaheim's save percentage is 86.0, Pittsburgh's 87.2 — and neither defence inspires confidence. With the Ducks in free-scoring form and the Penguins struggling to keep the puck out, this one looks set to sail over 6.5.