New York Islanders v Carolina Hurricanes tips: Canes carry the class despite road bump

The top dog in the Eastern Conference makes the trip to Long Island on Friday morning (11:00 am AEDT), and the market has made its mind up: Carolina Hurricanes are short quotes to hand the New York Islanders another home defeat. The Canes sit first in the Metropolitan Division with a 12-2-2 record and 26 points; the Islanders are fourth in the same division at 7-5-2, battling to keep their heads above .500 after a stumble through October.

Both sides come into this one having tasted defeat in their last start — the Islanders were blanked 4–0 by Edmonton at UBS Arena on Sunday, while Carolina went down 4–1 in Nashville two nights later. That loss snapped a four-game winning run for the Hurricanes, but punters aren't overly concerned: the visitors opened around the $1.70 mark and haven't budged. The Islanders drift between $2.10 and $2.20, a price that suggests they'll need everything to fall their way to pinch a result on home ice.

Who takes the Metro points?

Carolina's résumé makes for compelling reading. Across their last five outings they've averaged 3.4 goals for and just 1.4 against, with four wins by an average margin of 3.3 goals. That includes a 7–0 demolition of Winnipeg at home, sandwiched between narrow victories over Columbus (3–2) and Boston (2–1), and a 4–0 road shutout of St Louis. The Nashville loss — a 4–1 reverse on the road — is the only blemish, and even that came against a Predators outfit that's been playing solid hockey of late.

Season-long, the Hurricanes are putting up 3.94 goals per game and conceding 2.19, good for a points percentage of .813. Their power play clicks at 24.14 per cent, and their penalty kill sits at 83.33. Sebastian Aho leads the charge with nine goals and 12 assists, while Jackson Blake has quietly amassed 16 points (3G, 13A) and Logan Stankoven has chipped in 10 goals. The underlying numbers back it all up: a Corsi percentage of 59.5 means they're controlling the puck more often than not, and an expected-goals tally of 41.7 for against 29.5 against suggests the scoring rates aren't a fluke.

The Islanders, by contrast, are treading water. Their last five reads 2–3, with wins over Minnesota (4–3) and Nashville (4–3) on the road, plus losses to Edmonton (0–4 at home), Dallas (3–6 away) and the Kings (2–3 at home). Across that sample they've averaged 2.6 goals for and 3.8 against, with their two wins coming by a single goal and their three defeats by an average of 2.7. The shutout loss to the Oilers on Sunday was particularly grim — the first time they'd been blanked all season, and a performance that left fans wondering where the offence had gone.

On the season the Isles are scoring 2.79 per game and allowing 2.71, a near-even split that's mirrored in their 7-5-2 record. The power play is labouring at 15.91 per cent, though the penalty kill is respectable enough at 86. Bo Horvat and Matthew Schaefer have shouldered the load — Horvat with seven goals and seven assists, Schaefer with four goals and 10 helpers from the blue line — but depth scoring has been patchy. Their Corsi sits at 51.9, which suggests they're competitive in possession, but an expected-goals tally of 30 for and 29.1 against implies they're not creating nearly the volume of dangerous chances that Carolina manages.

The two sides haven't met yet this season, so there's no recent head-to-head thread to pull on. But the ladder tells the story plainly enough: Carolina are 19 spots higher in the overall standings, and they've built that gap on the back of superior scoring, tighter defence, and a knack for winning tight games. When assembling your nhl predictions for Friday, it's hard to look past the visitors — even coming off a loss, they carry too much class through the lineup.

Can the Isles keep it close enough?

The Islanders have lost both their last two at UBS Arena — 4–0 to Edmonton and 2–3 to Los Angeles — and neither result offers much encouragement for a side asked to cover against the conference leader. Across those two home defeats they've conceded seven goals and scored just two, a pattern that doesn't bode well when the opponent averages nearly four per night.

Carolina's road form isn't quite as dominant as their home record — they dropped that game in Nashville, and the St Louis shutout was their standout away performance in the last five — but they've still been clinical enough to warrant favouritism wherever they play. The Hurricanes' ability to score in bunches (witness that 7–0 drubbing of Winnipeg) means they can put a game to bed early if the Islanders' goaltending falters, and New York's save percentage of .896 ranks below Carolina's .903.

The Isles' win margin across their last five sits at an average of one goal, while their loss margin balloons to 2.7. That suggests they can hang around in games they're competitive in, but when they're second-best they tend to get beaten convincingly. Given Carolina's firepower and the Islanders' recent home woes, it's hard to see the hosts troubling the visitors enough to make this a one-goal affair.

Over or under the 5.5-goal line?

The total sits at 5.5 goals, and the market leans slightly toward the under at $1.95, with the over at $1.80. On paper, that line looks fair: the Islanders are averaging 2.6 goals for and 3.8 against in their last five, which gives you a combined rate of 6.4 per game. Carolina's last-five sample yields 3.4 for and 1.4 against, or 4.8 combined. Split the difference and you land somewhere near the quoted line.

But dig a little deeper and the case for goals firms. Both sides come off shutout losses — the Islanders blanked at home, the Hurricanes held to one in Nashville — and there's often a bounce-back mentality when offences are stifled like that. Carolina's season-long average sits at 3.94 goals for, and even if they throttle back on the road they're still likely to find two or three. The Islanders managed four in each of their last two wins, so they're capable of chipping in when the game opens up.

The other angle is special teams: Carolina's power play hums along at better than 24 per cent, while the Islanders' penalty kill — though solid at 86 — isn't bulletproof. If the Hurricanes draw a couple of man advantages, they've got the skill to convert, and that could be the difference between a 3–2 final and a 4–3 or 5–2 scoreline. The over looks the play if you're hunting a bit of value on Friday morning.