Warriors v Pelicans tips: Curry and co chasing bounce-back at Chase Center

The Golden State Warriors host the New Orleans Pelicans at Chase Center on Tuesday afternoon, with tip-off set for 2:00 pm AEDT. The Warriors arrive at 7–3 and fourth on the ladder, averaging 118.6 points per game behind Stephen Curry's 31.3. The Pelicans come in at 4–5 and 11th, posting 120.2 per outing but conceding 118.8 — a razor-thin 1.44 margin. Both sides can score; whether they can stop each other is the yarn.

Golden State's 5.0-point season margin and 8.19 SRS underline a side that's won games convincingly at home and on the road. New Orleans, by contrast, are barely treading water — a 2.72 SRS and a record below .500 despite Zion Williamson (20.6 points, 5.4 rebounds) and Dejounte Murray (16.3 points, 5.3 assists, 5.5 boards) headlining the box score. The Pelicans' defensive rating of 112.8 is slightly better than the Warriors' 113.5, yet New Orleans have leaked points all season and sit 3.5 games back of the pace. For punters hunting our nba betting tips, the question is whether the home court and Curry's red-hot hand tilt this one into a comfortable Warriors win or whether the Pelicans' scoring firepower keeps them close.

Who will win?

The Warriors are paying 1.25 to collect the points, and it's hard to argue with the bookies. Golden State sit fourth for a reason: an offence humming at 118.5 per 100 possessions, a defensive rating good enough to win most nights, and Curry averaging better than 31 a game through ten contests. Yaxel Lendeborg (21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds) and Brandin Podziemski (15.8 points, 5.4 boards) give the Dubs scoring balance, and 28.2 assists per game suggest the ball is moving. The Pelicans, at 4.00, offer punter value only if you believe their 120.2-per-game offence can outscore Golden State's home advantage and superior margin.

New Orleans have shown flashes — Murray's playmaking, Williamson's ability to get to the rim, Saddiq Bey chipping in 16.4 — but a 4–5 record and an 11th-placed ladder spot tell the tale of a side that can't defend consistently. Their offensive rating of 114.2 trails the Warriors' 118.5, and while a faster pace (101.7 possessions versus Golden State's 98) means more chances, it also means more chances for Curry and Lendeborg to run in transition. The Warriors' 7–3 start is no fluke, and playing at Chase Center only strengthens the case for a home win.

Can the Pelicans cover the 9.5-point line?

Golden State are giving 9.5 points at 1.90, while the Pelicans take the same price getting the start. The Warriors' 5.0-point season margin sits well below the line, which suggests the bookies expect a comfortable home result rather than a blowout. New Orleans' 1.44 average margin tells us they've been competitive in losses, and their 120.2 scoring rate means they'll put points on the board even when trailing. The question is whether that's enough to stay within single digits against a Warriors offence that posts 118.6 per game and defends at 113.5 per 100.

The Pelicans' defensive rating of 112.8 is marginally better than Golden State's, but their inability to string together wins — four in nine games — hints at a side that leaks crucial buckets late. If Curry heats up from three and the Warriors control the glass (43.7 rebounds per game versus New Orleans' 44.4), 9.5 points could evaporate by the final quarter. On the other hand, if Murray and Williamson dictate tempo and force Golden State into their 17 turnovers per game, the Pelicans stay within range. It's a line that could swing either way depending on which version of each side turns up.

Will the total sail over 221.5?

The total sits at 221.5 points, with the over priced at 1.30 and the under out at 3.40. Golden State average 118.6 per game; New Orleans post 120.2. Add those together and you land at 238.8 — well clear of the quoted line. The bookies are banking on tempo and scoring talent to push this one north, and the numbers back them up. The Warriors play at a 98-possession pace; the Pelicans run at 101.7. More possessions mean more shots, and both sides convert efficiently enough (Golden State at 118.5 offensive rating, New Orleans at 114.2) to suggest points will flow.

The under case hinges on defence tightening and both sides shooting poorly from range. The Warriors hit 39.5 per cent from three; the Pelicans connect at just 32.7. If Golden State's perimeter defence clamps Williamson and Murray into mid-range looks, and if New Orleans force the Warriors into their 17 turnovers, the scoreboard could stall. But with Curry lighting it up at 31.3 per game and the Pelicans needing to score to stay competitive, the over feels the safer yarn. The 1.30 price suggests the market agrees — this one could fly past 221.5 if both offences find their rhythm.

Same Game Multi angles

Same Game Multi punters have a few priced combos to consider. Warriors to win, Under 231.5 points and Draymond Green to get 6+ assists is available at 3.6 — a play that backs the home win but tempers the total and leans on Green's playmaking. Pelicans to win, Under 231.5 points and D. Murray to get 15+ points sits at 12, offering long-shot value if you fancy New Orleans to spring the upset and keep the scoreboard in check. The wildest combo on the board is Pelicans +8.5 point spread, Z. Williamson to get 30+ points and D. Murray to get 30+ points at 126 — a speculative play that requires both Pelicans stars to erupt and the margin to stay tight. None of these are certainties, but they add another layer to the contest for punters chasing a narrative-driven multi.