Grizzlies v Pelicans tips: Memphis rolling, can New Orleans spoil the party?

This one lands at Tue 3 Nov, 12:10 pm AEDT and on paper it’s a classic “top seed meets scrappy challenger” spot. Memphis have flown out of the blocks at 6-0 and sit top of the standings; New Orleans are 2-4 and chasing momentum. The Grizzlies bring a powerful offence (121.2 points per game) and a stingy defence (opponents 106 per game), while the Pelicans score plenty themselves (119.7) but have been more porous at the back (117.8). For punters who like a narrative, this reads as the streak (Memphis) versus the shot at an upset (New Orleans).

Who will win? The match-winner case

Memphis arrive as the odds-on favourite and with a season profile that’s hard to argue with: 6-0, an SRS of 17.15 and a net rating of +15.1. Their offence is humming (offRtg 120.5) and defence looks excellent (defRtg 105.4). On the other side, New Orleans have talent up front — their season scoring is 119.7 points per game and they feature leaders like Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray — but their record sits at 2-4 and their defRtg of 111.4 suggests the Grizzlies will test them.

There’s limited recent head-to-head pattern to lean on in the build-up, so weight falls to season numbers: Memphis’ margin per game is +15.17 while New Orleans’ margin per game is +1.83, a big gulf in outcomes through six games. The head-to-head market on the board reflects that gap with Memphis the clear favourite (Head to Head prices show home shorter than away). For anyone pulling up nba predictions, the form and efficiency data point to Memphis as the side most likely to keep the streak going — but New Orleans’ scoring profile means it shouldn’t be taken as a blowout for certain.

Line / handicap — can Memphis cover?

The line sits with Memphis as the home side and the board gives them a start of -5.5 points. Look at the season scoring spreads for context: Memphis average a margin of +15.17 per game, while New Orleans sit around +1.83, which suggests Memphis have been winning by significantly more than a 5.5-point margin on average this season.

Pace also matters — Memphis play at a 100.5 possessions pace and New Orleans at 103.9, so this should be a fairly open game without being hyper-fast. If Memphis reproduce their offensive efficiency and defensive rating, covering -5.5 looks achievable; if New Orleans control tempo and impose their scorers, the cover becomes tougher. The safer play for spread punters is to lean with the Grizzlies if you favour form and efficiency, but expect some guys to back the Pelicans +5.5 if they fancy an upset.

Totals — will it go over 224.5 points?

Total Points is set at 224.5. Combine each team's scoring outputs and you get a high-scoring baseline: Memphis average 121.2 points per game and New Orleans average 119.7, which sums to 240.9 points per game between them on season averages — comfortably above the 224.5 line.

Defensive numbers matter too: Memphis concede 106 points per game while New Orleans concede 117.8. If both sides stick close to their season scoring rates, the game looks primed to clear 224.5. That said, totals boards can move with expected pace or personnel news; based purely on the season scoring profiles, an Over lean is logical because the combined offensive averages are well above the quoted total.

Same Game Multi ideas

Same Game Multi combos are on the board for this clash and the pack lists a handful of priced plays. If you like a Pelicans upset plus player lines there’s a Pelicans to win + Under 234.5 points + Karlo Matkovic 5+ rebounds combo at the price shown in the popular SGM list, and there are bolder Pelicans-win stacks that pair big scoring nights for Zion and Dejounte Murray at higher returns.

SGMs are a fun way to back a story — if you’re backing New Orleans to pull off the shock, the packaged Pelicans-to-win additions in the popularSgm array give concrete routes to structure that bet. Remember to size any SGM sensibly; they’re attractive but carry more variance than a straight-match wager.