Pelicans v Nuggets tips: Winless New Orleans hosts Denver for Thursday NBA clash

The New Orleans Pelicans search for their first win of the season when they host the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, 29 October at 11:00 am AEDT. The Pelicans remain winless at 0–3 after opening the campaign with three losses, while Denver sits 1–2 and will look to level their ledger in Louisiana. The market has the visitors as clear favourites at $1.50, with the home side out to $2.55.

New Orleans opened their season with consecutive defeats before dropping a third straight, conceding an average of 128 points per game across that span. Their offensive numbers have been solid enough — 124.7 points per game — but defensive lapses have cost them dearly. Zion Williamson (20.7 points per game) and Dejounte Murray (20.3 points, 6.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds) have carried the load, with Saddiq Bey contributing 15.7 per outing.

Denver's start has been similarly rocky. They opened with a win before dropping two on the trot, and their offensive efficiency (112.8 offensive rating, 113 points per game) has lagged behind expectations. The defensive rating of 121.5 points allowed per 100 possessions tells its own story. Nikola Jokić (22.3 points, 8.7 assists, 9.7 rebounds) and Jamal Murray (22.3 points, 5.7 assists, 6.3 rebounds) share top billing in the scoring column, with DeMar DeRozan adding 15.3 per contest.

Who wins Thursday's clash?

Neither side has looked convincing through the opening week, but Denver's pedigree tips the scales. The Nuggets' net rating of –8.7 is troubling, yet New Orleans sits even deeper in the red at –3.2, and that's before factoring in the Pelicans' 0–3 hole. The market reflects that reality: Denver are heavy favourites and punters are backing them to get the job done in the Big Easy.

The raw scoring numbers favour the home side — 124.7 points per game to Denver's 113 — but context matters. New Orleans are conceding 128 per night, and their defensive rating of 120.9 points per 100 possessions is marginally better than Denver's 121.5, which isn't saying much. Both outfits are leaking points like a sieve, but the Nuggets have at least banked a win. The Pelicans have none.

Pace could be a factor. New Orleans run at 102.4 possessions per game, one of the quicker tempos in the league, while Denver churn along at 96.8. If the home side can drag the visitors into an uptempo shootout, they'll fancy their chances of keeping it close. But Denver's ability to control the game through Jokić's playmaking — 8.7 assists per game — gives them a steadying hand when the chaos peaks.

The schedule-adjusted margin (SRS) tells a clearer yarn. Denver sit at –4.33, New Orleans at –8.48. That four-point gap aligns neatly with the spread on offer, and it suggests the market has read the form book correctly. We lean toward the Nuggets to collect the points, though the Pelicans' home court and offensive firepower mean this won't be a cakewalk.

Can Denver cover the spread?

The line sits at Pelicans +5.5 / Nuggets –5.5, and that number feels about right given the evidence. Denver's margin per game is –8.67 across three outings, meaning they've been outscored by nearly nine points on average. New Orleans' margin is –3.33, which is less dire but still underwater. Neither side has covered themselves in glory, but the Nuggets' single win at least gives them a baseline.

The Pelicans' offensive output of 124.7 points per game suggests they can stay within range if their shooters find rhythm. Denver's defensive frailties — conceding 121.7 per night — open the door for New Orleans to hang around deep into the fourth quarter. If the home side can push the pace and force turnovers, they've got a genuine shot at covering the 5.5-point cushion.

Denver's net rating of –8.7 points per 100 possessions is the worst of the two, which complicates the case for laying the points. The Nuggets have been more efficient offensively (117.7 rating for New Orleans versus 112.8 for Denver), but their inability to string together stops on defence is a red flag. Still, the market trusts Denver to win, and we're inclined to follow that lean while acknowledging the Pelicans could keep it tight.

Over or under 230.5 points?

The total is set at 230.5 points, and both sides have shown they can fill the bucket early in the season. New Orleans average 124.7 per game, Denver 113. Add those together and you land at 237.7, comfortably over the line. The two defences have been generous to a fault — the Pelicans concede 128 per outing, the Nuggets 121.7 — which only strengthens the case for points.

Pace is worth weighing here. New Orleans run at 102.4 possessions per game, one of the faster clips in the league, while Denver are more deliberate at 96.8. If the Pelicans dictate tempo and push the ball in transition, the total could sail over 230.5 without much drama. Both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league for defensive efficiency, and that's fertile ground for overs punters.

The under sits at $3.25, which tells you where the market's head is at. Punters are backing the over at $1.32, and it's not hard to see why. Unless both sides tighten up defensively in a hurry — and nothing in the early form suggests they will — this one shapes as a shootout. We side with the over, though we note that a slow start or foul trouble for key scorers could shift the equation quickly.

Same Game Multi angles

For punters chasing a bigger return, the Same Game Multi board offers some intriguing combinations. Nuggets to win, Under 240.5 points and Christian Braun to get 5+ rebounds pays $4.60, pairing a Denver victory with a slightly higher total line and a rebounding prop. If you're backing the visitors but fancy a more conservative points call, that's one avenue.

On the flip side, Nuggets to win, Over 240.5 points and Jamal Murray to get 7+ assists is priced at $4.50. Murray is averaging 5.7 assists per game, so you're asking him to lift above his season mark, but in a faster-paced game that number becomes more achievable. Another option is Nuggets –4.5 point spread, Nikola Jokić to get 10+ assists and Jamal Murray to get 10+ assists at $11. Jokić is averaging 8.7 assists, Murray 5.7, so both would need to exceed their early form, but the playmaking duo has the pedigree to deliver on a good night.

For those who want to load up on raw scoring, Nikola Jokić to get 15+ points, Jamal Murray to get 15+ points and Christian Braun to get 15+ points pays $3. Jokić and Murray are both averaging over 22 per game, so the first two legs look solid; Braun is the question mark. As always, these multis carry higher risk, but the potential payout reflects that. Punters should weigh the odds against their appetite for variance.