Two teams anchored to the bottom of the standings square off Thu, 22 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT when the New Orleans Pelicans host the Indiana Pacers at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans limped to a 26–56 record last season, while the Pacers managed an even grimmer 19–63 win-loss mark — the kind of numbers that have draft lottery consultants dusting off the ping-pong balls.
On paper, New Orleans sits a modest three games ahead of Indiana in last year's ledger, but both outfits were shipping north of 120 points per contest on the defensive end. The Pelicans averaged 115.5 points for, the Pacers 112.4; neither could stop a nosebleed. With an SRS of –4.26, New Orleans at least showed flashes of competitiveness at home, whereas Indiana's –7.64 rating told the tale of a team getting hammered night after night. The market has this one as a modest Pelicans tilt, and the rebuild narratives write themselves.
This clash won't grace any highlight reels for title contention, but it's exactly the kind of scrap where value hides in plain sight. The yarn here is simple: two squads desperate to prove they've turned a corner over the off-season, facing off in a contest the bookies reckon New Orleans should edge. Let's dig into the form lines and the numbers to see if that assessment holds water, and where punters might find an angle in the nba betting tips for this bottom-of-the-barrel slugfest.
Who gets the chocolates?
The head-to-head market has the Pelicans installed as favourites at home, and the ladder tells you why: 26 wins beats 19 any day of the week, even when both clubs are fighting for lottery positioning. New Orleans averaged three more points per game last season and, crucially, conceded a tick less (120.0 versus 120.4), which is about as meaningful as choosing between two leaky boats — but a leaky boat is still a boat.
Indiana's road woes were well documented, and hosting duties give New Orleans the edge in a matchup that's less about brilliance and more about who makes fewer mistakes. The Pacers were outscored in the paint, outscored from deep, and outscored from the stripe for most of last year; unless significant roster overhaul has happened over the break, the defensive fragility that saw them give up 120.4 per night isn't magically healed. The home side's 115.5 scoring average suggests they can at least put the ball in the hoop with some consistency, and that might be enough when the opposition leaks like a sieve.
The current price on New Orleans reflects a market view that home court and a marginally better record should carry the day. It's hard to argue against that logic when you're comparing two teams who combined for 45 wins across 164 games last season. The Pelicans get the nod here — not because they're world-beaters, but because they're the least-worst option in a contest that screams developmental minutes and garbage-time rotations.
Tipped at $2.31 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season points per game.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | Pts |
|---|---|
| Zion WilliamsonPF | 21.5 |
| Dejounte MurrayPG | 18.2 |
| Saddiq BeySF | 16.4 |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | Pts |
|---|---|
| Tyrese HaliburtonPG | 21.8 |
| Pascal SiakamPF | 21.3 |
| Andrew NembhardSG | 19.0 |
Can the line hold water?
The line market has New Orleans laying 3.5 points, which feels about right given the ladder gap and home advantage. Three and a half is a skinny spread in basketball — one extra three-pointer or a couple of turnovers can flip it — but it acknowledges that neither side is a powerhouse.
The Pelicans conceded 120 per game last year, so even if they hit their 115.5 average on offence, they're relying on Indiana to underperform their 112.4 to cover. That's a tight margin for error in a sport where runs happen in bunches. The Pacers, for all their struggles, could keep this one close simply by hanging around in the fourth quarter and capitalising on New Orleans' defensive lapses.
The case for Indiana getting the start is built on their ability to scrape together enough offence to stay within a possession or two. The Pelicans' –4.26 SRS suggests they were competitive in stretches, but 3.5 points is a narrow window when both teams were shipping 120-plus all season. If you fancy the visitors to keep it respectable, the plus-points offer a safety net. If you back the home side to assert themselves, you're hoping they can stretch a lead late and cover the short number. Either way, this line feels like a coin-flip dressed up as a home advantage.
Tipped at $1.87 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line context
Season average margin, set against this match's line. The marker is the margin that covers.
The final word
This is a matchup that won't trouble the ESPN primetime schedulers, but for punters hunting value in the rebuild trenches, there's a story to be told. New Orleans owns the better record, the home court, and a marginally less porous defence. Indiana brings the kind of desperation that comes with a 19–63 ledger, but desperation doesn't always translate to wins when you're giving up 120.4 a night.
The head-to-head market leans Pelicans, and the line suggests a tight contest. Our read is that New Orleans does just enough to get home, but covering a short spread against a team with nothing to lose is a different proposition. The lack of a totals market robs us of the chance to fade the over in what could easily turn into a shootout between two defensive sieves, but the rebuild yarn here is clear: bet on the side that at least showed a pulse last season, and hope the Pacers' growing pains continue for one more night.