Crystal Palace host Liverpool at Selhurst Park on Monday 9 November, 1:00 am AEDT, and the form lines couldn't be more different. Palace have opened the season with two losses — shipping six goals and scoring just once — while the Reds have drawn both starts 2–2, finding the net four times but unable to shut the door at the back. It's a meeting of the Premier League's most generous defence and a Liverpool side that can't help but trade blows.
The headline yarn here is the goals: Palace conceded four at home to Manchester City in their last start on 29 August, then shipped two at Everton the week before. Liverpool, meanwhile, have shared four goals in each of their first two matches — a 2–2 draw with Nottingham Forest at home on the same day, and a 2–2 stalemate at Newcastle the previous Monday. The betting public has noticed: the over 2.5 goals market has firmed from 1.53 to 1.46, while the under has drifted from 2.40 to 2.50. That move tells the story — punters expect another shootout, and the form book agrees.
Who will win?
Liverpool sit 13th on the ladder with two points from two draws, while Palace are anchored at 18th with zero points from two losses. The Reds opened at 1.16 to win this one and have drifted slightly to 1.17, but they're still commanding favourites. Palace have firmed from 14 to 13, while the draw has eased from 4.30 to 4.40 — modest moves, but they suggest the market is settling on a Liverpool win without quite trusting them to blow the doors off.
Coming off that 1–4 home loss to Manchester City, Palace have conceded three goals per game across their opening two fixtures and scored an average of 0.5. Liverpool's last start was a 2–2 home draw with Nottingham Forest, the second straight match where they've found two goals and leaked two. Over their last two outings, the Reds are averaging two goals for and two against — decent output going forward, but a defensive record that suggests they'll give Palace a sniff.
There's no recent head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so we're reading the room: a Palace side yet to win this season, facing a Liverpool outfit that's scored in every outing but can't keep a clean sheet. The Reds should have enough firepower to claim the points, but don't be surprised if Palace get on the scoresheet. Our epl predictions lean toward Liverpool to edge it, but this one could get messy before it's decided.
Tipped at $1.52 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Can Palace cover the line?
The line market has Liverpool laying -1 goal, with Palace at 13 and Liverpool at 1.17. Palace have firmed from 14, while the Reds have drifted marginally from 1.16 — a hint that punters are warming to the hosts with the start. Palace's two defeats have come by margins of three and two goals, so they've been competitive without threatening to trouble the scorers. Liverpool, meanwhile, have drawn level twice — no margin data to work with, but the fact they've given up two goals in each match suggests Palace could keep it close.
Palace's average loss margin across their first two games sits at 2.5 goals — they've been well beaten, but not blown away. If Liverpool win by a single goal, Palace cover the line. Given the Reds' inability to lock down defensively and Palace's willingness to concede while still putting up a fight at home (that 1–4 loss to City was at Selhurst Park), there's a case for the hosts to stay within the -1 handicap. It's not a strong play, but if you fancy Palace to make a contest of it, the line offers a sliver of value.
Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Overs the yarn in a goal-heavy clash
The total goals line sits at 2.5, with the over firming from 1.53 to 1.46 and the under drifting from 2.40 to 2.50. That's the clearest market move of the lot, and it's backed by everything we've seen so far. Palace have conceded an average of three goals per game and scored 0.5; Liverpool have scored two per match and conceded two. Between them, their last five outings have produced an average of four goals per game — well clear of the 2.5-goal threshold.
Palace's last start at home saw five goals (1–4 to City); Liverpool's last start at home delivered four (2–2 with Forest). There's no combined head-to-head average to lean on, but the maths is simple: if Liverpool score two (their per-game average) and Palace nick even one, we're over the line. If Palace get shut out and Liverpool win 2–0, we're still over. The only scenario that beats us is a 1–0 or 2–0 grind, and nothing in the form suggests either side is capable of keeping it that tight. Overs feels like the standout play here.
Tipped at $1.46 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total goals
Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 2.5.
Hit rate vs 2.5
Same Game Multi angles
Same Game Multi is on the board for this one, and a couple of priced combos jump out. Cody Mathès Gakpo to score anytime and Liverpool to win is sitting at $3 — a tidy double if you're backing the Reds to claim the points and fancy Gakpo to get among the goals. If you're feeling adventurous, Cody Mathès Gakpo to score anytime, draw, and over 3.5 goals is priced at $15 — a long-odds punt that leans on the high-scoring form and the outside chance Palace hold Liverpool level. We're not tipping either combo here, but they're worth a look if you're building a multi around the overs narrative.