Crystal Palace v Newcastle: Magpies flying after stunning Spurs win

Crystal Palace are staring down the barrel of three straight losses to start the season when Newcastle United roll into Selhurst Park on Monday, 26 October at 1:00 am AEDT. The Eagles sit 18th with zero points from two outings, having leaked six goals and found the net just once. Meanwhile, the Magpies perch sixth on the ladder with four points — unbeaten through a draw with Liverpool and a stunning 2–0 away win over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday that's got punters paying attention.

Palace are coming off a 1–4 home defeat to Manchester City on 29 August, a result that followed an 0–2 loss at Everton in the opener. Newcastle, by contrast, arrive off that Spurs triumph and look the side with momentum. The match-winner market reflects that confidence: Newcastle have firmed from 2.3 to 2.25, while the draw has drifted from 3.6 to 3.7. Palace sit at 2.75, but the early-season numbers tell a bleak story for the home side.

Who will win?

Newcastle's 1–1–0 record and plus-two goal differential dwarf Palace's 0–0–2 and minus-five. The Magpies have scored four and conceded two across their opening fixtures; Palace have managed one goal for and six against. That last start against Spurs was particularly impressive — a clean sheet away from home against a side many tipped for top-four contention. The 2–2 draw with Liverpool at home before that showed Newcastle can go toe-to-toe with the big boys, netting twice against a defence that shipped just 33 goals all of last season.

Palace's home form is limited to that Manchester City mauling — a fixture few would have expected them to win, but the margin and manner were concerning. They offered little going forward and were carved open repeatedly. The Eagles have yet to show they can trouble even modest defences, let alone one that's kept a clean sheet in its last outing. Newcastle's away record is spotless so far: one match, one win, zero goals conceded. That Spurs result came on the road, underlining the Magpies' comfort outside their own stadium.

The two sides haven't met recently enough for head-to-head history to feature heavily in our premier league predictions, but the gulf in current form is telling. Newcastle are unbeaten and travelling with belief; Palace are pointless and leaking goals. The market has responded accordingly — the visitors have firmed into favouritism, and that move feels justified by the numbers on the board.

Can Newcastle cover the line?

The line market has Palace getting a three-goal start at home, with Newcastle priced at 20 on the away side and Palace at 1.06 on the home side. Newcastle have drifted from 19 to 20 in the past 24 hours, suggesting punters aren't convinced the Magpies will win by more than three goals. That's a fair read — while Newcastle have been solid, their wins haven't been emphatic blowouts. The Spurs triumph was by two goals; the Liverpool clash was level.

Palace's two defeats have come by margins of two and three goals respectively. Their overall average loss margin across those fixtures sits around 2.5 goals, which is right on the edge of covering a three-goal line. Newcastle's average win margin from their sole victory is two goals — well short of what they'd need to beat a -3 spread. The Magpies are the better side, no doubt, but asking them to win by four or more at Selhurst Park feels a stretch given the early-season sample. Palace may be winless, but they're not rolling over by cricket scores just yet.

How many goals will we see?

The total goals line sits at 2.5, with the over firming from 1.5 to 1.44 and the under out at 2.5. That move on the over suggests the market expects chances aplenty, and the stats back it up. Palace have conceded three goals per game on average across their two fixtures, while Newcastle have scored two per outing. Add those together and you're already nudging three goals before Palace's attack gets a look-in.

Palace's lone goal this season came in that 1–4 home loss to City, so they've shown they can at least trouble the scoresheet at Selhurst Park. Newcastle conceded two to Liverpool in their home draw, proving they're not impenetrable at the back. If both sides find the net once, we're already at the line. If Newcastle replicate their two-goal Spurs performance and Palace grab even a consolation, we sail over. The firming on the over feels like the smart money following the form — these two have been involved in high-scoring affairs so far, and Monday morning's clash shapes as another.

Same Game Multi angles

The Same Game Multi board has a few eyebrow-raising combos worth a mention. 'BTTS, Over 8.5 corners & Over 2.5 cards' is quoted at 2.63 — a relatively tidy price for a multi that leans on both teams finding the net and a bit of needle creeping into the contest. Given Palace's defensive wobbles and Newcastle's attacking intent, both teams scoring feels a fair shout, and the corners and cards markets reflect the expected tempo.

At the other end of the spectrum, 'Newcastle to win & Yeremi Pino to be sent off' sits at 41. That's a massive quote, and rightly so — red cards are rare beasts, and asking for a specific player to walk while Newcastle claim all three points is a long-odds punt. For the brave, 'Newcastle to win, BTTS, each team over 3.5 corners & each team over 1.5 cards' at 11 offers a chunkier return on a four-leg combo that threads the needle between Newcastle's class and Palace's desperation to avoid a third straight defeat.