Tottenham v Crystal Palace tips: Two cellar-dwellers seek first EPL win

Sunday morning's encounter at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (4:30 am AEDT) shapes as a battle of desperation — two sides winless through two rounds and occupying the bottom two rungs of the EPL ladder. Tottenham sit 20th with zero points and a -5 goal differential; Crystal Palace are 18th on identical numbers but with one goal to their name. Neither has tasted victory, neither has found consistent scoring, and neither can afford to wait much longer for that first three-pointer of the campaign.

The market has Spurs as heavy favourites to break through at home, but recent form offers little comfort for either camp. Tottenham are coming off a dispiriting 0–2 home loss to Newcastle United on 30 August, their second straight defeat without scoring a goal. Palace last fronted against Manchester City eight days ago, suffering a 1–4 hammering on their own deck. Both sides have conceded freely — Tottenham have shipped five goals across two matches (all at home or away), Palace six — and the absence of clean sheets tells its own tale. The yarn here is simple: someone has to win, and the market says it's Spurs, but the evidence is thin on both sides of the ledger.

Who breaks the drought first?

Tottenham's home form is a blank slate with one data point: that 0–2 loss to Newcastle. Their only other outing this season was a 0–3 defeat away to Brentford on 23 August, meaning they've yet to find the net in the Premier League. Crystal Palace have managed one goal across two starts — the solitary strike in that 1–4 loss to City — but were shut out 0–2 away to Everton in their opener on 23 August. Neither side has posted a win in their last five overall (both lists contain only two results, both losses).

The head-to-head ledger is absent from the pack, so we're left to weigh ladder and recent results alone. Spurs are nominally above Palace on alphabetical tie-breaks only — both have zero points, both have lost twice, both have conceded five or more. The market clearly believes home ground will be the difference: Tottenham's head-to-head price has drifted slightly from 1.52 to 1.55, but they remain strong favourites. Crystal Palace have firmed marginally from 5.5 to 5.25, while the draw has also firmed from 4.25 to 4.2. That tells us punters see a likely home win, but not one they're rushing to lay shorter odds on — the drift in Spurs' price suggests some caution around backing a side that's yet to score.

Our view is that Tottenham's class should eventually tell on home soil, but the lack of goals and the two consecutive defeats make this a nervous proposition. Palace have shown they can find the net (albeit once in two tries), and Spurs have shown they can't. If ever there was a match ripe for a banana-skin result, this is it. Still, the weight of the market and the home advantage tilt us toward the hosts — just don't expect champagne football.

Can Spurs cover the line?

The handicap market has Tottenham laying one goal at home, priced 1.17 after drifting slightly from 1.16. Crystal Palace get the one-goal start at 13, firmed from 14. That line asks Spurs to win by two or more — a tall order for a side that's scored zero goals in two matches. Palace have lost by two (away to Everton) and three (home to City), so covering +1 would have required them to keep those margins to one goal or less.

Neither side has posted an average win margin — there are no wins to average — so we're left with loss margins only. Tottenham have lost by two (Newcastle) and three (Brentford), averaging 2.5 goals against. Palace have lost by two and three as well, same average. The only difference is that Palace managed one goal in one of those losses; Spurs have managed none. That makes the -1 line a sharp ask for the hosts: they need to not only win, but do so by multiple goals, against a side that has at least shown it can find the net once.

We're inclined to pass on the line altogether — the evidence for a multi-goal Spurs victory simply isn't there — but if forced to pick, the value sits with Crystal Palace +1 at the longer price. A narrow Tottenham win or a draw both land that bet, and given the form, a one-goal margin (or no margin at all) feels more likely than a rout.

Totals: how many goals in a match of misfiring attacks?

The total goals line is set at 2.5, with over priced 1.57 (drifted from 1.55) and under at 2.3 (firmed from 2.38). That firming under price tells us the market is leaning toward a low-scoring affair, and the recent form supports that view. Tottenham have scored zero goals across two matches (zero for, five against); Crystal Palace one goal for, six against. Combined, that's one goal scored and eleven conceded across four matches — hardly the stuff of over bettors' dreams.

To land the over, we need at least three goals. That could be 2–1, 3–0, or any higher combination. To land the under, we need two goals or fewer: 1–0, 2–0, 1–1, or 0–0. Given Spurs' inability to score and Palace's solitary strike, the under looks the more likely outcome. Even if Tottenham break through for one or two goals, Palace would need to contribute meaningfully to push the total over the line, and they've managed just one goal in two starts.

The market move — under firming, over drifting — aligns with our read. This has all the hallmarks of a scrappy, low-scoring contest between two sides scrambling for confidence. We lean under 2.5 goals, framed as the safer opinion in a match where neither attack has shown any fluency.

Same Game Multi on the board

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will have Same Game Multi markets open for punters chasing the big ticket. A few popular combos from the board: Mathys Tel to score anytime, Crystal Palace to win & Over 3.5 goals is paying $34 — a hefty price reflecting the long odds on Palace and the goal-count requirement. Mathys Tel to score anytime, Crystal Palace to win & BTTS sits at $23, while Over 6.5 corners & Mathys Tel to score anytime is $2.9.

Those longer-priced combos bank on a Palace upset and a goals glut — possible but not probable given the form. The Tottenham to win, Over 6.5 Tottenham corners & Mathys Tel to score anytime leg at $5.75 aligns more closely with the market favourite, but still requires Spurs to dominate territorially and find the net through one named scorer. If you're inclined to play an SGM, weigh the Tel goalscoring angle carefully — he's clearly the sharp end of these combos, but the pack offers no scoring history to lean on.