Mendizorrotza tips: Fortress Alavés eye three-from-three to leave Valencia reeling

Alavés have made their home ground a fortress in the early weeks of the La Liga season, and they'll look to keep that run alive when they host Valencia at Mendizorrotza on Wednesday, 16 September, kicking off at 4:00 am AEST. The hosts sit fourth on the ladder with two wins and a draw from three starts, while Valencia languish in 16th spot with just one point from a winless opening trio of fixtures.

The contrast in form and confidence couldn't be sharper. Alavés are coming off a 1–0 win over Villarreal at home on 29 August — a gritty result that underlined their defensive solidity and ability to grind out results on their own patch. Valencia, meanwhile, are coming off a 1–3 loss away to Deportivo on 31 August, their second defeat in three outings and a result that leaves them searching for their first win of the campaign.

The odds tell a clear story: Alavés have firmed from 1.95 to 1.88 in the head-to-head market, while Valencia have drifted from 4.00 to 4.10. The draw has also eased from 3.15 to 3.30. Punters are backing the home side to continue their solid start, and the question now is whether Valencia can arrest their slide or if Alavés will deliver another statement performance in front of their own fans.

Who will win?

Alavés are unbeaten through three rounds, with two wins and a draw. Their last five overall reads: a 1–0 win over Villarreal at home on 29 August and a 1–1 draw away to Rayo Vallecano on 21 August. At Mendizorrotza, they're spotless — their only home fixture this season was that Villarreal victory, and they've yet to taste defeat on home soil. The defensive discipline has been the calling card: just one goal conceded in three matches, and a goal differential of +4 that ranks among the competition's best.

Valencia's form paints the opposite picture. Their last five overall shows three results: the 1–3 loss to Deportivo away on 31 August, a 0–1 home defeat to Real Betis on 26 August, and a 0–0 home draw with Celta Vigo on 23 August. Over those three games, they've averaged just 0.3 goals for and conceded 1.3 goals against. They've lost twice and drawn once, and their attack has managed a solitary goal across 270 minutes. At home, they've played twice — a loss and a draw — but this trip to the Basque Country represents a step into hostile territory against a side yet to drop a home point.

The head-to-head market reflects the gulf in momentum. Alavés have firmed from 1.95 to 1.88, and while that's not a landslide shift, it signals quiet confidence from the market that the home side can extend their unbeaten run. Valencia's drift to 4.10 suggests punters see little value in backing a side that's failed to win any of its opening three and has managed just one goal in that stretch. Our la liga predictions lean towards the hosts continuing their strong start, with Alavés well placed to claim all three points and push further up the ladder.

Can Alavés cover the goal line?

The line market has Alavés laying one goal at 1.23, having firmed slightly from 1.24. Valencia get the one-goal start at 11.50, having drifted from 11.00. The movement tells you where the money's going: punters expect Alavés not only to win, but to do so by more than a single goal.

Alavés don't have a large sample of home results yet this season — just that 1–0 win over Villarreal — but their overall defensive record (one goal conceded in three games) and Valencia's toothless attack (0.3 goals per game, 1.3 conceded) set up a scenario where the hosts should dominate possession and territory. Valencia's average loss margin over their two defeats is 1.5 goals, and given their struggles to find the net, asking them to keep this within one goal feels optimistic. Alavés covering the line carries risk given the small winning margin in their most recent outing, but the form and ladder positions point to a comfortable home victory.

Total goals: patience or fireworks?

The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the over at 2.10 (firmed from 2.15) and the under at 1.68 (drifted from 1.67). The market is cautiously leaning towards a few goals, but not by much. Alavés have been involved in low-scoring affairs so far — their two results combined for three goals total (1–0 and 1–1). Valencia's three matches have produced five goals in aggregate (all three finishing with two goals or fewer), and their last five overall average of 1.6 goals per game (0.3 for, 1.3 against) suggests they're not lighting up scoreboards.

That said, the over has firmed slightly, perhaps reflecting a view that Alavés can break through more than once against a Valencia defence that's conceded four in three. If the home side get ahead early, Valencia will need to chase, and that could open the game up. Still, the safer read of the data is a tight, defensively sound contest where Alavés win without needing a goal rush. The under at 1.68 suits the form lines and Valencia's struggles in front of goal.

Same Game Multi angles

A couple of Same Game Multi options sit on the board if you're chasing a bigger ticket. One combo priced at 1.75 pairs Over 1.5 goals with Over 3.5 Alavés corners — a nod to the hosts controlling the game and creating chances. Another at 1.36 combines Over 0.5 Alavés goals with Over 2.5 Alavés corners, reflecting the expectation that the home side will press forward and force Valencia into defensive mode.

For the brave, there's a longshot at 17.00 that bundles Arnaut Danjuma Groenveld to score anytime, Alavés to win, and Over 3.5 goals. That last leg is the stretch given the form, but if Alavés cut loose and Valencia push numbers forward in desperation, goals could flow. It's a fun punter's angle rather than a form-based case, but it's on the board if you fancy a yarn with a bit of upside.