Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alaves tips: Can winless hosts turn it around?

Monday's early-hours La Liga yarn brings us a proper crossroads clash at Balaídos, where 17th-placed Celta de Vigo — still searching for their first win of the campaign — host eighth-placed Deportivo Alaves at 1:15 am AEDT. The tale of the tape couldn't be starker: Celta sit on one point from three starts (0-1-2), having conceded four and scored just the solitary goal. Alaves, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten (1-2-0) with five goals for and three against, sitting comfortably mid-table on five points.

The market's had its say over the last 24 hours, too. Celta have drifted from $2.05 out to $2.10, while the draw has firmed slightly from $3.25 to $3.20. Alaves hold at $3.40, which tells you punters aren't rushing to back the home side despite Balaídos being their patch. With Celta yet to register a win and their odds easing, the visitor's unbeaten run shapes as the compelling thread in our la liga predictions for Round 9.

Who will win? Alaves value in the upset

Celta's winless start — a draw and two losses — has left them second-bottom, and the bookies are telling us they're not confident of a turnaround here. That drift to $2.10 suggests the early money leaned home, then pulled back. Alaves, for their part, have kept things tidy: one win and two draws, no defeats, and a healthy plus-two goal differential. The visitors have shown they can grind out results on the road, and with Celta's lone goal in three matches pointing to blunt attack, it's hard to see where the home breakthrough comes from.

There's no recent form data or head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so we're reading the room via ladder and market behaviour. Alaves sit 9 rungs higher, their defensive record (three conceded in three) is tighter than Celta's four shipped, and they've found the net five times to Celta's solitary effort. The drift in Celta's price — and the fact the draw has firmed — tells us the market sees this as closer to a coin-flip or an away result than a routine home win.

We're siding with the visitor at $3.40. Unbeaten form, a goal-difference edge, and the market move all point the same way. Celta need to prove they can score before we back them, and right now the proof isn't there.

The line: Alaves +2 goals the play

The line market has Celta laying two goals at $10.50, while Alaves get that two-goal start at $1.22. Given Celta have managed one goal across three matches and Alaves have conceded only three in the same stretch, the idea of the home side winning by three or more feels fanciful. Even if Celta do find a breakthrough and edge a narrow win, Alaves +2 covers that scenario comfortably.

With no margin data to lean on, we're trusting what the ladder and odds board tell us: Alaves are defensively sound, Celta are toothless, and a two-goal buffer is enormous in a contest between sides this evenly matched on the board. Take the visitors with the start.

Totals: Under 2.5 goals the safer yarn

The total is pegged at 2.5 goals, with under paying $1.62 and over at $2.10. Celta have been involved in four total goals across three matches (one for, four against), averaging 1.33 goals per game. Alaves have seen eight goals in their three (five for, three against), so 2.67 per outing — just above the line. But when you weigh Celta's inability to score against Alaves' defensive discipline, the case for a tight, low-event affair builds quickly.

There's no head-to-head average to compare, but the form book suggests both sides will prioritise shape over fireworks. Celta can't afford another loss and Alaves won't want to gift their unbeaten run away by opening up. Under 2.5 at $1.62 isn't a massive price, but it's the side the stats lean toward.

Same Game Multi angles

The Same Game Multi board offers a few priced combos worth a look. 'Alaves to win to nil & Over 5.5 Celta Vigo corners' is up at $9.00, banking on the visitor's clean sheet and Celta's desperation forcing them forward late. 'Over 0.5 Alaves goals & Over 3.5 Alaves corners' pays $2.60 — a short-priced parlay that assumes the visitor will get on the board and press enough to earn a handful of flags. If you fancy Celta to finally click, 'Celta Vigo to win, Over 2.5 goals & Over 7.5 corners' is priced at $4.75, though that feels like a longer yarn given their goal drought.