Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán tips: Sevilla eye response after Atlético setback

Sevilla welcome Valencia to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium on Saturday, 12 September at 5:00 am AEST, with both sides nursing wounds from their last starts. The hosts sit sixth on the ladder with six points from three matches, while Valencia languish in sixteenth with just a solitary point and still searching for their first win of the campaign.

It shapes as a meeting of contrasting fortunes — Sevilla have tasted victory twice already this season, but Valencia are yet to break through, managing only a draw and suffering two defeats. The morning kick-off could suit the side with momentum on their side, and on paper, that ought to be the home outfit. Whether they can shake off their most recent disappointment and reassert themselves in front of their own punters is the central yarn.

Who claims the points?

Sevilla are coming off a 1–3 loss to Atlético Madrid at this very venue on 30 August, a setback that ended a promising run. Before that stumble, they had claimed a 3–1 win away to Athletic Club on 23 August, a result that hinted at their attacking threat and composure on the road. That away victory by a two-goal margin showed they can finish when the chances arrive, but the Atlético defeat — also by a two-goal margin — exposed vulnerabilities when facing top-tier opposition at home.

Valencia, meanwhile, last took the field on 31 August and fell 1–3 to Deportivo away from home, their second loss in a row. Prior to that, they went down 0–1 at home to Real Betis on 26 August and managed a goalless draw with Celta Vigo at home on 23 August. The visitors have averaged just 0.3 goals for and conceded 1.3 against across their last five matches, with an average losing margin of 1.5 goals when they do fall. That's a bleak offensive record and suggests they're struggling to create genuine scoring opportunities.

The ladder tells a stark story: Sevilla have won twice and sit comfortably mid-table; Valencia have no wins, one draw, two losses, and a negative goal differential of three. When you weigh six points versus one, and a goals-for tally of six against Valencia's solitary strike across three rounds, the gulf is clear. Our la liga predictions favour the hosts to return to winning ways, especially given Valencia's inability to find the net with any regularity.

The head-to-head ledger between these two offers limited recent history, so we're leaning heavily on current season form and ladder positions. Sevilla are priced at 2.20 to claim the three points, with the draw at 3.15 and Valencia out at 3.25. Those prices reflect the market's view that Sevilla, despite that Atlético setback, remain the more credible proposition.

Can Sevilla cover the line?

The line market has Sevilla laying 2 goals at 11.50, with Valencia getting the same start at 1.18. That's a hefty spread, and it asks Sevilla to win by three goals or more to cover. Given Valencia's recent form — failing to score in two of their last three outings and averaging just 0.3 goals for — there's a case that Sevilla could keep them quiet and pile on a few themselves.

Sevilla's average winning margin in their last five matches sits at two goals, matching the exact spread on offer. That suggests the line is priced about right if you believe the hosts can replicate their Athletic Club performance. However, their most recent home outing saw them concede three to Atlético, a reminder that even at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, they're not impregnable. Valencia's losses have come by margins of two and one goals, so they haven't been blown off the park — just consistently edged out.

The key question is whether Sevilla can find the same cutting edge they displayed against Athletic Club, or whether the Atlético loss will linger. Valencia's defensive frailties are well-documented, but asking Sevilla to win by three or more feels ambitious given the limited sample. The safer play might be backing the hosts straight-up rather than chasing the inflated line odds.

Same Game Multi angles

For those chasing a bigger return, the Same Game Multi board has a few intriguing combos. Sevilla to win and Miguel Sierra to score anytime is priced at 5.00, a simple pairing that backs the home victory with a goal from a named scorer. If you fancy a defensive clampdown alongside the win, Sevilla to win, both teams not to score, and over 2.5 goals is available at 12.00 — a combo that requires Sevilla to score three or more while keeping Valencia off the sheet.

On the flip side, Valencia to win and Filip Ugrinic to score anytime is out at 8.50, a longshot that demands the visitors finally break through. The most audacious offering is Arnaut Danjuma Groenveld to score a hattrick and Valencia to win by three or more goals, priced at a whopping 81.00. That's a punt for the romantics, given Valencia have managed just one goal all season, but stranger things have happened in football. These combos add flavour if you're looking to spice up the morning kick-off.

The verdict

Sevilla's superior ladder position, goal-scoring output, and home advantage make them the logical selection to claim the win. Valencia's winless start and anaemic attack suggest they'll struggle to trouble the scoreboard, let alone challenge for points. The hosts should have enough quality to bounce back from the Atlético defeat and collect three points in front of their own supporters.

The line market is tempting given Valencia's offensive woes, but a three-goal margin is a big ask against any La Liga opposition. We're happy to back Sevilla straight-up and watch the rest unfold. If the home side can rediscover the form they showed against Athletic Club, Saturday morning could deliver a comfortable result for the punters who've backed them.