Kovacevic v Khachanov tips: Russian looks the play despite horror run

Aleksandar Kovacevic and Karen Khachanov meet in the first round of this ATP event on Saturday afternoon, 2:10 pm AEST, and the form guide reads like a horror script for both blokes. The American sits at world No. 96 and has dropped all five of his last starts; Khachanov, ranked 39th, hasn't fared any better—five straight losses to his name as well. Punters scanning the form lines might wonder who to back in a match-up of two players desperate to snap losing streaks, but the Russian's career résumé and ranking edge make him the logical play despite the ugliness of recent weeks.

When they met in January 2024 on hard court, Khachanov took it in four sets (6–4, 6–3, 4–6, 6–3). That head-to-head record now stands at 1–0 in favour of the Russian, the only previous chapter in what might become a longer rivalry if Kovacevic can climb the rankings. For now, though, the American has never beaten him, and with both men coming off losing runs, that single data point carries weight.

Who will win?

Kovacevic arrives in dreadful nick. His last five starts read: loss to Nuno Borges (twice on the same day in early August—likely a scheduling quirk), loss to Cameron Norrie (twice in late July), and a five-set defeat to Botic Van De Zandschulp back in late June. His most recent outing on Tuesday, 4 August was a straight-sets loss to Borges (7–2, 4–6, 6–6), and since then he's had no chance to right the ship. The American's career win percentage sits at 35 per cent (40–74), and his season ledger of 11–19 (37 per cent) suggests he's treading water at this level. The one home appearance in his last five was another loss to Borges, so there's no venue comfort to draw on.

Khachanov's form is equally grim—five consecutive defeats dating back to early July. His most recent start on Thursday, 6 August saw him fall to Terence Atmane in straight sets (4–6, 6–7). Before that he lost to Bernard Tomic twice in late July and to Flavio Cobolli in a five-set battle in early July. Yet his career numbers tell a different story: 330 wins against 244 losses (57 per cent), seven ATP titles, and a best ranking of No. 8. This season he's 16–17 (48 per cent), which is hardly sparkling, but it's a level above Kovacevic's output. The Russian has proven he can win deep into majors and Masters events when the conditions and match-ups align; the American has yet to crack the top 60.

The head-to-head market reflects that gulf in class. Khachanov opens as the clear favourite, and while neither man is bringing momentum, the Russian's higher ceiling and superior track record make him the logical selection. For punters weighing tennis betting tips, this is a case where pedigree outweighs recent form when both form lines are equally dire. Kovacevic has no answer yet for Khachanov's power game, and until he finds one, backing the underdog feels more like hope than strategy.

Set Handicap: can Kovacevic keep it tight?

The Set Handicap line sits at 1.5 sets, with Kovacevic getting the start and Khachanov laying the spread. Given both players' inability to string wins together, a tight contest feels plausible—neither man is rolling opponents at the moment. Khachanov's January win over the American went four sets, not a blowout, and the Russian's recent losses have included plenty of tight frames (two-setters against Tomic, a five-setter against Cobolli). Kovacevic's defeats have also been competitive in patches—he pushed Borges to three sets in his last outing and took Van De Zandschulp to five in late June.

That said, Khachanov's class advantage should eventually tell. When he's dialled in, he can rattle off sets quickly with his big serve and forehand. Kovacevic's 11–19 season record suggests he struggles to close out tight matches, and backing him to cover the spread requires belief that he can win at least one set or push Khachanov to a decider. The safer play is the Russian laying 1.5 sets—he's the more proven player, and even in poor form, his weapons give him the edge to take this in straights or at worst drop one set on the way through.

Total Games: under looks the call

The Total Games line is set at 23.5. When these two met in January, the match lasted four sets (6–4, 6–3, 4–6, 6–3), which totalled 26 games—comfortably over the quoted line. That contest featured a third-set wobble from Khachanov, but he steadied to close it out in four. If this one goes a similar route—tight early, Russian finding rhythm late—the total could land either side of 23.5 depending on whether Kovacevic nicks a set.

Recent form, however, points to both players struggling to hold serve consistently or maintain intensity deep into matches. Khachanov's loss to Atmane was a two-setter (4–6, 6–7), just 17 games. His defeats to Tomic were both two-setters as well (2–4, 6–6 in the scoreline notation, which adds up to brief affairs). Kovacevic's last outing against Borges went three sets but only totalled 19 games (7–2, 4–6, 6–6). With both men leaking confidence and unable to string together winning streaks, a shorter match feels likelier than a marathon. The under at 23.5 games is the play—expect Khachanov to assert himself early and Kovacevic to fade if he can't grab a foothold in the first set.