De Minaur v Navone tips: Demon eyes revenge after Novak-slayer arrives hot

Alex de Minaur gets his chance at redemption on Thursday, 1 Oct at 1:00 pm AEST when he squares off against Mariano Navone in the first round. The Aussie demon and the Argentine world No. 45 last met in October 2024 — De Minaur won in straight sets, but Navone's stock has climbed since then, peaking with his latest outing: a marathon five-setter against Novak Djokovic that ended 7–5 4–6 6–6 7–6 (7) 2–1 (retired). That was three days ago, on Navone's home court, and it's the kind of performance that announces you've arrived at a new level.

De Minaur's own recent form reads less heroically — his last start was a draw that ended mid-match at 6–4 2–2 (the opponent unspecified, played away). Before that he'd dropped two of four, including a three-setter to Cameron Norrie and a home loss to Brandon Nakashima. Across the last five outings De Minaur has managed two wins, one draw and two defeats, a record that doesn't exactly scream dominance. Navone, by contrast, arrives carrying the scalp of a 24-time Slam champion and a 2–2 split in his last four — mixed, but the quality of that most recent victory tilts the narrative his way.

Who wins the rematch?

The head-to-head ledger is short: one match, October last year, De Minaur in straight sets (7–6 5–1). That result places the Aussie as favourite, and the market agrees — he's priced at 1.21 to Navone's 4.50. The bookies are backing the higher-ranked player (De Minaur currently sits 10th, Navone 45th) and the man who's already beaten him once.

But tennis punters know recent form can trump ancient history, and Navone's most recent result is the kind that builds belief. Coming off a win over Djokovic — even if the great Serb retired mid-tiebreak in the fifth — is a psychological tailwind. De Minaur, meanwhile, is coming off an incomplete match and has lost two of his last four completed outings. His season record stands at 36–18 (67 per cent), solid but not bulletproof. Navone's 23–21 (52 per cent) is less impressive on paper, yet that Djokovic scalp suggests he's peaking at the right moment.

The pair have met once on indoor hard court (the surface type that dominates both their h2h and season stats), and De Minaur won comfortably. That memory will matter, especially if Navone's legs are still heavy from Monday's five-set grind. But if the Argentine has recovered — and three days is tight but doable — his confidence will be sky-high, and our tennis predictions suggest this rematch won't be the cakewalk the market implies.

Sets handicap: can Navone cover the spread?

The sets line is set at –1.5 for De Minaur, meaning he needs to win in straight sets to cover. Navone gets the +1.5 start, so he covers if he wins outright or forces a third set. The prices sit at 1.65 for De Minaur –1.5 and 2.15 for Navone +1.5.

De Minaur's recent set-winning record is patchy — his two home wins in the last five came in straight sets (against Stefanos Tsitsipas, a quality scalp), but both his losses went to three. Navone's last win, the Djokovic epic, went the distance, and his previous victory over Matteo Berrettini was also a three-setter. The Argentine has shown he can hang in matches and force deciders, which makes the +1.5 line attractive.

Given Navone's form spike and De Minaur's recent wobbles, backing the underdog to cover the spread looks like the smarter play. Even if De Minaur wins, the value sits with Navone pushing him to at least a third set.

Total games: does Navone's grit push the count over?

The total games line is set at 20.5, with both over and under priced at 1.90. That's a narrow target — 21 games or more means over; 20 or fewer is under.

Their October meeting produced a comfortable straight-setter for De Minaur (7–6 5–1), a total that would've landed well under 20.5. But context matters: Navone is a different player now, fresh off a match that went deep into a fifth-set tiebreak and racked up games in bunches. His last home win required three sets and 18 games; his win over Berrettini also went three and totalled 18.

De Minaur's recent three-setters (the Norrie loss, the Nakashima loss) both cleared 20 games comfortably, and if this match goes to a decider — which the set-handicap case suggests it might — the over becomes the logical landing spot. Navone's improved resistance and De Minaur's recent inability to close out straight-set wins point toward a longer afternoon than the market might expect.