ATP tips: Rublev faces tricky test against red-hot Merida Aguilar

There's nothing quite like a second-round clash between two blokes coming off wins to get the punters leaning in. Andrey Rublev — ranked 24th in the world and a 19-time tour champion — squares off against Spain's Daniel Merida Aguilar, who sits at 39 and has been making a bit of noise with a title already this season. Both rolled through their opening assignments, and now they meet for the first time on Thursday, 3 September at 4:00 am AEST.

Rublev's career record of 397–225 tells the story of a bloke who's been around the block, but this season has been a touch more grind than glory — 28 wins against 16 losses. Merida Aguilar, meanwhile, is 19–9 year-to-date, riding the sort of form that turns heads when you're cracking the top 40. The yarn here is whether the Russian's nous and pedigree can see off the Spaniard's momentum, or if the underdog can keep his run rolling.

Who takes it?

Rublev comes in off a gutsy win over Otto Virtanen — a five-setter that went the distance — while Merida Aguilar dispatched Marton Fucsovics in straight sets on 31 August. The Russian's last five reads three wins and two losses, with that Virtanen marathon his most recent outing. Before that, he'd also beaten Marin Cilic in another marathon, but copped defeats to Nuno Borges and an opponent listed as TBD earlier in the stretch.

Merida Aguilar's form line is equally scrappy — three wins in his last five, including a solid straight-sets victory over Zizou Bergs and a thriller against Cilic where he saved match points. The losses came against Taylor Fritz and Learner Tien, both away, but the Spaniard has been unbeaten at home in his last three starts. That home form — three wins from three, all at the venue — gives him a bit of confidence heading into this one.

The head-to-head ledger is blank, so there's no history to lean on. What we do know is the market has Rublev as favourite, reflecting that gap in ranking and career achievements. The Russian's been there, done that on the big stage, and while the Spaniard is no slouch, backing the more seasoned operator makes sense here. Our tennis betting tips lean toward Rublev to navigate this one, even if it takes a bit of work.

Can Rublev cover the spread?

The Sets Handicap has Rublev laying 1.5 sets, which asks him to win in straight sets or by a two-set margin. Given his last two outings both went five, that's a fair ask against a bloke who's won three on the trot. Merida Aguilar's recent matches have been tight affairs — he pushed Fucsovics to four sets in his last start and had to dig deep against Cilic before that.

Rublev's pedigree suggests he can close out sets when he's on, but the form says he's been in more scraps than steamrolls lately. The Spaniard's home record — three straight wins without dropping a match — hints he'll make this competitive. Taking the Russian to cover feels like chasing, and there's not enough in the form to suggest he'll blow Merida Aguilar off the court. The Spaniard getting the start at +1.5 sets looks the safer play.

Games Total: how many do we see?

The Games Total is set at 38.5, and the recent outings from both suggest we could be in for a longer afternoon. Rublev's last two matches were both five-set marathons — plenty of games there — while Merida Aguilar's win over Fucsovics went four sets with a few tight games in the mix. Even his straight-sets win over Bergs saw a couple of sets go deep.

Neither bloke has been steamrolling opponents lately, and with no prior meetings to gauge how they match up, the form points to competitive sets rather than one-sided romps. The over on 38.5 games feels like the play — two right-handers who can serve and compete, both coming off wins, and a first-time meeting that should produce some competitive tennis. Back the overs and settle in for a bit of a watch.