ATP Second Round tips: Medvedev seeks revenge against Struff

Daniil Medvedev gets a shot at redemption when he faces Jan-Lennard Struff in the ATP Second Round on Saturday at 7:00 pm AEST. The world number six Russian carries a hefty 8–2 career ledger over the German into this one, but their most recent meeting — back in July — went Struff's way in a five-setter. Medvedev enters on the back of three wins from his last five starts, most recently dispatching Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets on Friday. Struff, ranked 59th, arrives with two consecutive victories including a comfortable win over Thiago Agustin Tirante on Wednesday.

The form lines tell contrasting stories. Medvedev has compiled a 39–16 season record with two titles, while Struff sits at 15–17 for the year without silverware. The rankings gap is significant — sixth versus 59th — and the head-to-head history overwhelmingly favours the Russian. That July defeat aside, Medvedev has won eight of their ten career meetings, including dominant performances in their two February 2025 encounters where he dropped just five and two games respectively.

Can Struff spring another upset?

The market has Medvedev installed as the short-priced favourite, and the form book backs that assessment. Coming off a straight-sets win over Carreno Busta, the Russian has won three of his last five overall, with his two defeats coming in tight three-setters. Struff enters on the back of consecutive wins — the latest a comfortable dismissal of Tirante — but his overall recent form is thinner with just three starts recorded in his last five window.

That July meeting between these two represents Struff's lone victory in their last five encounters. The German took it 7–6, 7–5 in a tight two-setter, but Medvedev had won their two previous meetings in February 2025 without breaking a sweat. The broader career record of 8–2 in Medvedev's favour tells the tale — this is a matchup the Russian has owned across surfaces, with a 3–0 edge on indoor hard courts particularly relevant for our tennis predictions heading into indoor season.

Medvedev's 39–16 season record and 71 per cent year-to-date win rate dwarf Struff's 15–17 mark and 47 per cent strike rate. The quality gap is real, and while Struff proved in July he can trouble the Russian on his day, the form, rankings, and history all point in one direction. The market's pricing reflects that reality.

Will the sets spread attract?

The sets line has Medvedev laying 1.5 sets, meaning punters backing the favourite need him to win in straight sets to collect. Struff getting the 1.5-set start would cash with any set won, or if he causes an upset. That July encounter went two tight sets, and their February 2025 meetings were both straight-set affairs for Medvedev.

Looking at Medvedev's last five overall, two of his three wins came in straight sets, while both losses went the distance. The Russian has shown he can blow opponents away when clicking, but he's also been extended in recent defeats. Struff's limited recent sample includes a straight-sets win last start and a three-setter before that in victory.

The head-to-head pattern leans toward decisive results — Medvedev's dominant February wins were clinical, while Struff's July victory was a two-set job. The quality difference suggests Medvedev should have the firepower to close this out in two if he brings his A-game, though Struff has proven capable of pushing the Russian in their most recent meeting.

How many games will we see?

The total games line sits at 21.5, with the market offering even money on both sides of that number. With no combined scoring averages available from recent form, the head-to-head record offers our best guide. Their July meeting totalled 24 games (7–6, 7–5), while February's two encounters produced just 17 and 14 games as Medvedev steamrolled the German.

The pattern in their past five meetings shows variance — the two February routs came in well under 21.5, the July contest sailed over it, and their earlier matchups have similarly split. The most recent July result suggests Struff can make this competitive when he's on song, pushing sets to tiebreaks and forcing Medvedev to work.

If this plays out like February, we're looking at a comfortable Medvedev win with minimal resistance and a games total comfortably under the line. If Struff replicates his July form and makes the Russian earn it, we're heading over. The even-money pricing on both sides reflects that genuine uncertainty.