US Open tips: Prizmic's five-set grind meets Paul's class test

Thursday morning at 4:00 am AEST brings a classic David-versus-Goliath yarn in the US Open second round, with world No. 102 Dino Prizmic facing American No. 21 seed Tommy Paul. The Croatian qualifier has already logged serious court time this week — his opening-round win over Alexander Shevchenko stretched to five sets and saw him claw back from two sets down — while Paul cruised through his first match in straighter fashion. The head-to-head ledger is blank, making this a proper first-date scenario under the lights in New York.

Paul is the prohibitive favourite on the board, but Prizmic's recent form line carries a compelling subplot: he's won his last two outings and three of his last five starts overall, with all three victories coming on home soil. The 22-year-old's 14–11 season record might not leap off the page, but his willingness to scrap deep into matches — that five-set thriller his most recent calling card — suggests he won't fold easily against higher-ranked opposition.

Who wins the match?

Tommy Paul arrives off a clean win in his last start and carries a 37–16 year-to-date record that speaks to a player operating comfortably inside the top 25. His 70 per cent win rate this season, paired with a career tally of 242 wins against 154 losses, underlines the class gap on paper. Paul's recent run includes two wins from his last four, though he did drop matches to Learner Tien and Kamil Majchrzak in August, so he's not infallible.

Prizmic, meanwhile, is coming off that gruelling Monday-night marathon — a 2–6, 6–3, 3–6, 7–5, 7–5 escape act that would have drained the legs but steeled the belief. His last five overall shows two losses sandwiched between three wins, with the defeats coming away from home against Alexis Galarneau and Cameron Norrie. Critically, all three of his recent wins in that sample were at home, and while US Open hard courts aren't quite the same as his domestic surface, the rhythm of winning matters.

The market reflects the gulf in ranking and experience: Paul is priced as a heavy favourite to advance, and punters will note his superior year-to-date win percentage and deeper resume. Prizmic's path to victory likely runs through dragging Paul into another physical war, but whether he has the petrol left after Monday's five-set slog is the central question. Paul's ability to finish matches cleanly — he took his opener without needing a deciding set — gives him the fresher legs and the cleaner route home.

The handicap ledger

The Sets line opens at 2.5, with Paul laying that handicap and Prizmic receiving the start. In plain terms, backing Paul at –2.5 sets requires a straight-sets victory; anything that goes four or five tilts the line to Prizmic's side of the ledger.

Prizmic's recent form offers a mixed bag on this front: his last-start win went the full five, while his two losses in the last five were both straight-sets hidings. Paul, conversely, has shown he can close out matches efficiently — his most recent win came in straight sets, and his only loss in that recent sample that went deep was the five-setter against Kamil Majchrzak. The Croatian's ability to extend matches is both his greatest asset and his Achilles heel: it keeps him live in the handicap market but also hints he may lack the firepower to trouble elite opponents over shorter battles.

For punters weighing the Sets market, Prizmic's durability and Paul's occasional vulnerability in tight moments create a case for the underdog to pinch a set or two, especially if fatigue from the opening round doesn't derail him early. The +2.5 start looks the safer harbour for those backing the qualifier's grit.

Games total outlook

The Games total sits at 35.5, a line that pivots on whether this match compresses into a tidy straight-setter or sprawls into another endurance test. With no previous meetings to lean on for an average combined games tally, we're left parsing their recent form for clues.

Prizmic's five-set epic on Monday delivered 39 games won across the match, comfortably over this number, while his other recent outings have varied wildly depending on opponent resistance. Paul's cleaner recent wins suggest he can limit games when in control, but his losses to Tien and Majchrzak both went deep enough to inflate totals. The Croatian's tendency to fight every point — even when outgunned — points toward a higher game count if he can stay competitive early.

If Prizmic's legs hold and he forces Paul into tiebreaks or extended sets, the Over becomes the play. If the American's class tells early and he rolls through in three efficient sets, the Under cashes. Our tennis betting tips lean toward the former: Prizmic's recent form suggests he won't go quietly, and Paul's occasional lapses in August hint this could stretch longer than the market expects.

The selection

Paul's superior ranking, better season record, and fresher legs make him the logical choice to advance, but the price offers little margin for error. Prizmic's resilience and recent winning form — even if it came at significant physical cost — keep him dangerous enough to extend the match and cover the handicap.

The total market carries the most intrigue: Prizmic's proven he can drag matches into deep water, and Paul's not immune to the odd stumble when the pressure ratchets up. Back the Over on Games and expect this one to run longer than a simple straight-sets forecast would suggest. The Croatian's got the heart; whether he's got the legs is the final chapter we'll read on Thursday morning.