Hamad Medjedovic and Marco Trungelliti lock horns in the ATP First Round on Saturday morning at 8:30 am AEST, and the form book tells two very different stories heading into this one. The Serb sits higher in the rankings at world number 73 but is nursing a rough patch, while the Argentine has found some rhythm over the past fortnight.
The two right-handers have met once before—on clay earlier this year, when Medjedovic took a straight-setter in April. Now they renew acquaintances in the opening round, and the market has installed the world number 73 as a short-priced favourite despite his recent stumbles. The question for punters is whether Medjedovic's superior ranking and solitary head-to-head win are enough to offset Trungelliti's current momentum.
Who will win?
Medjedovic owns a 49–45 career record and has split his 2026 ledger evenly at 11–11, converting one title along the way and climbing as high as world number 56 in the process. But the last five outings paint a picture of a player searching for answers: four losses in that span, including a last-start defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo on 5 August. That latest outing saw Medjedovic drop sets 4–6 and 2–6, and he's now won just once in his past five appearances.
Trungelliti arrives ranked 90th and carrying a 7–12 year-to-date record, part of a 24–37 career mark. On paper, those numbers don't inspire confidence, yet his recent form has been markedly sharper. The Argentine has claimed three wins from his last five starts, including back-to-back victories over Kei Nishikori and Sebastian Ofner on 13 and 12 August respectively. He's coming off that Nishikori scalp in a three-setter decided by a tiebreak in the final frame, and the win over Ofner two days earlier also went the distance.
The lone head-to-head meeting this year went Medjedovic's way in straight sets, a 7–6, 6–5 scoreline on clay. That sample is thin, and the surface context differs from what we see in this week's draw, but it does give the Serb a psychological edge on their personal ledger. The market reflects that history and the ranking gap, pricing Medjedovic as the clear favourite. For those hunting tennis tips, the task is weighing that past result and pedigree against the contrasting arcs of recent form.
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Head-to-head context
0–0
Arthur Fery vs James Duckworth
Set Handicap – can Medjedovic cover the spread?
The Set Handicap line has Medjedovic laying 1.5 sets, meaning he needs a straight-sets victory to cover. Trungelliti gets the 1.5-set start, so any match that goes to a deciding set—or an outright upset—lands on the Argentine's side of the ledger.
Medjedovic's last five results include four defeats, and only one of those losses was a straight-setter. He's been competitive enough to push opponents into deciders but hasn't closed the door when it mattered. Trungelliti, meanwhile, has played three-set battles in three of his last five outings, winning two of them. His knack for staying alive deep into matches suggests he can make this one a scrap, even if he falls short on the head-to-head result.
The lone previous meeting was a two-setter in Medjedovic's favour, but clay form doesn't always translate cleanly to other surfaces, and Trungelliti's current confidence should keep him in the fight longer than that April scoreline might suggest. For punters eyeing the handicap, the case for Trungelliti to keep it tight carries weight.
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Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Arthur Ferylast 5
James Duckworthlast 5
Total Games – a tight contest on the cards?
The Total Games line sits at 22.5, and the recent form suggests both players have been involved in contests that stretch the distance. Medjedovic's last five include multiple three-set affairs, while Trungelliti has gone long in three of his past five starts.
The head-to-head meeting earlier this year was a two-setter, but both sets were decided by narrow margins—7–6 and 6–5—suggesting even when Medjedovic prevails, the games tally can climb. If this match follows a similar pattern of tight service holds and competitive sets, the over becomes an appealing proposition.
Trungelliti's ability to hang in matches and force tiebreaks, as evidenced by his recent wins over Nishikori and Ofner, adds further fuel to the case for a higher game count. Medjedovic's struggles to put opponents away cleanly of late also point toward a contest that could edge north of the 22.5-game mark.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.
Hit rate vs 22.5
The yarn
This one shapes as a classic first-round test between a higher-ranked player nursing a form slump and a lower-ranked operator riding a hot hand. Medjedovic has the pedigree and the ranking points, but Trungelliti has momentum on his side and recent wins over quality opponents to back it up.
The Serb will need to rediscover the sharpness that carried him to a career-high ranking earlier this season, while the Argentine will be looking to build on his August surge and prove that his recent results are no fluke. For punters, the form divergence makes this a tricky puzzle—do you back class and history, or ride the wave of current confidence? Saturday morning's clash should provide the answer.