De Jong v Passaro tips: Dutch punch-on looms in ATP first-rounder

Wednesday morning brings an intriguing ATP first-round tussle between two players who've both tasted defeat in their most recent outings. Jesper De Jong, ranked 100th in the world, welcomes Francesco Passaro (207th) to court at 6:00 am AEST, with the Dutchman looking to shake off a straight-sets loss to Adam Walton on 25 August.

Passaro arrives with a similarly scratchy yarn: the Italian bowed out in straight sets to Nicolas Kicker on 14 August, and his 1–3 year-to-date record paints the picture of a campaign that hasn't caught fire. De Jong's ledger reads 6–14 for the season, but that hides a small patch of success at home — two straight wins over Budkov Kjaer and Dane Sweeny in mid-August before the Walton stumble. The head-to-head sits 1–0 De Jong's way, with the Dutchman prevailing in a five-set marathon back in May 2025, so there's already a chapter in the book between these two.

Who gets the nod?

The form line points squarely toward the home side, even if recent results have been uneven. De Jong has won six matches this year and sits three wins clear of Passaro's solitary victory; over the last five outings, the Dutchman collected two wins (both at home) before dropping three in a row, the last two away from familiar surrounds. Coming off that two-sets loss to Walton on 25 August, De Jong will be eager to reset in front of a friendlier crowd.

Passaro's run is thinner still: one win from five appearances, and his last start ended in a straight-sets defeat to Kicker on 14 August. His sole triumph — a home win over Oriol Roca Batalla on 13 August — offers a sliver of hope, but at 207th in the rankings and carrying a 25 per cent win rate this season, he's the outsider on every metric. The market agrees: De Jong sits at even-money odds, Passaro out around the 2.15 mark, which reflects the gulf in both ranking and recent output.

When these two last met, De Jong needed five sets to get home, so Passaro has shown he can push the favourite. But with the Italian arriving off a loss and a paper-thin 2025 résumé, it's hard to mount a case against the Dutchman at home. The tennis tips here lean toward De Jong to take care of business and move into the second round.

Does the set-handicap hold water?

The sets line has De Jong laying 1.5, meaning punters need him to win in straight sets to collect. His two home wins in the last five were both 2–0 triumphs (against Budkov Kjaer and Sweeny), which suggests he can close the door when conditions suit. Passaro's form offers little resistance: his lone recent win was also 2–0, but that came against a player ranked lower than himself, and the Kicker defeat was a bagel job in straight sets.

The May 2025 meeting went the distance, so there's historical evidence that Passaro can steal a set when he's on. But arriving off a loss, ranked 107 places below his opponent, and with just one win all year, it's difficult to see him forcing a decider here. The set-handicap line asks whether De Jong can apply the blowtorch early and keep it there — his home form in mid-August says yes, and Passaro's brittle season says he might not have the artillery to mount a comeback if he drops the first.

How many games will we see?

The total-games line is pegged at 39.5, and the first question is whether this one stays tight or blows out. De Jong's two home wins were clinical 2–0 affairs, but his losses have included extended battles — the Gaston defeat ran 6–1, 7–6, and the Walton loss was 6–4, 6–2. Passaro's recent form is similarly mixed: his win over Roca Batalla was 2–0 but competitive (6–4, 6–1), while the Kicker loss was a tidy 6–1, 6–4.

When they met in May, the match stretched to five sets and delivered plenty of games across the ledger. If Passaro can find his range early, there's a chance this one pushes past the line. But the more likely script — given his lack of match sharpness and De Jong's comfort at home — is a quicker finish. The under looks the safer play if you expect the Dutchman to keep the Italian at arm's length from the first ball.