Sunday morning's ATP Second Round clash shapes as a test of momentum versus class, with Matteo Berrettini coming off a Saturday-night win and Jiri Lehecka looking to shake off a straight-sets loss from last start. The two square off at 8:35 am AEST with the Italian ranked world number 42 and the Czech sitting 14th — a twenty-eight-place gulf that tells only half the yarn.
Berrettini's 15–12 record this season lags his 64 per cent career win rate, but his last outing against Titouan Droguet — a three-setter that went the distance — showed the former world number six can still dig deep when the stakes rise. Lehecka (25–15 this year, 63 per cent win rate in 2026) boasts the higher current ranking and more titles across his career, yet arrives here nursing the sting of that Rafael Jodar defeat on 9 August.
The head-to-head ledger sits at 0–0 across all surfaces — first-time meetings are a punter's delight for the unknown variables they throw into the mix. With no shared history to lean on, recent form and the set-handicap numbers become the storytellers.
Who will win?
Lehecka's season form line reads two wins from his last four — victories over Alexander Blockx (6 6–3 4 on 7 August) and an earlier opponent listed as TBD, sandwiched around losses to Chak Lam Coleman Wong in late July and that most recent straight-sets exit against Jodar. Coming off a defeat always sharpens the mind, and the Czech has won ten of his last fifteen matches overall this year, a decent if not dominant strike rate.
Berrettini's last five paint a similar 2–3 picture: wins over Arthur Fils in early July and Droguet last Saturday, with three losses in between — two to Mariano Navone (both recorded as 4 August matches, one away and one at home) and a five-setter against Grigor Dimitrov back on 4 July. That Saturday win over Droguet, though, carried the hallmarks of a man finding rhythm at the business end of the draw.
The head-to-head market has Lehecka at shorter odds and Berrettini the outsider, reflecting the rankings gap and perhaps the Czech's higher season win percentage. But punters know that tennis is a sport of matchups, and without a prior meeting to parse, this one hinges on who handles the occasion better. Lehecka has the ranking edge; Berrettini has the momentum of a last-start win and a career win rate that eclipses the younger man's.
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Head-to-head context
0–0
Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini
Set handicap: can Lehecka cover the spread?
The Set Handicap sits at 1.5 sets, with Lehecka laying that margin and Berrettini getting the start. In a best-of-three contest, laying 1.5 means the favourite must win in straight sets; the underdog collects if he claims even one frame.
Lehecka's last four results show two straight-sets victories (over Blockx and the TBD opponent) but also two losses that went the distance — the Jodar match and the Coleman Wong defeat. Berrettini, meanwhile, has pushed three of his last five to three sets, including that Droguet win and both Navone losses. The Italian's ability to stay competitive deep into matches — his career win rate of 64 per cent suggests he's no stranger to winning tight contests — makes the 1.5-set cushion appealing for the dog.
If Lehecka brings his best, he can sweep through in two; if the nerves of a first meeting or the weight of that last-start loss creep in, Berrettini has shown he can force a decider. The handicap market offers value for those who see this as a tight, competitive affair rather than a Czech procession.
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Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Jiri Leheckalast 5
Matteo Berrettinilast 5
Total games: over or under 23.5?
The Total Games line of 23.5 asks whether this match produces a shootout or a swift conclusion. With no head-to-head history to mine for combined-games averages, we turn to recent set scores.
Lehecka's last four matches include two that finished in straight sets (6 6–3 4 against Blockx, 6 6–4 2 against TBD) — tallies of 16 and 14 games respectively, comfortably under the line. His losses, though, went longer: the Jodar defeat was 3 3–6 6 (12 games across two sets) and the Coleman Wong marathon read 6 3 4–1 6 6, a three-setter that would have pushed well over 23.5 had the full scorecard been visible.
Berrettini's recent outings trend higher: his Droguet win (3 6 6–6 1 4) tallied at least 20 games in two sets, while the Fils victory (6 7 3 6–4 5 6 3) and Dimitrov loss (3 4 6 7 3–6 6 3 5 6) both stretched deep into five-set territory (though this is a best-of-three event). The Italian's penchant for tight service holds and long games tilts the narrative toward the over, particularly if he forces a third set. Our tennis tips lean toward points on the board in what shapes as a competitive first meeting between two capable returners.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.
Hit rate vs 23.5
The yarn
First-time matchups carry a romance all their own — no film to study, no grudges to settle, just two players feeling each other out across the net. Berrettini has the career pedigree (ten titles, a former top-ten mainstay) but arrives as the underdog; Lehecka owns the current ranking and the season win rate but carries the baggage of that last-start loss.
Sunday morning's contest won't settle who finishes higher by year's end, but it will test whether Lehecka can reset after a defeat or whether Berrettini's momentum — and that 64 per cent career win rate — tilts the scales. For punters, the spread and the total offer more intrigue than the straight head-to-head, with enough evidence in the recent form lines to back both a tight scoreline and a match that nudges past the 23.5-game mark. The first ball goes up at 8:35 am AEST, and the story writes itself from there.