ATP Third Round tips: Cerúndolo chases another upset as Auger-Aliassime wobbles

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo meets Felix Auger-Aliassime in the ATP Third Round on Wed, 19 Aug, 3:00 am AEST, and the form line tells a tale the odds haven't quite caught up with yet. The Argentine world No.51 arrives on a win, the Canadian world No.4 on a loss—and while the market has the favourite clear as day, there's enough in the yarn to make this one far from straightforward.

Cerúndolo took out Hamad Medjedovic in straight sets in his last outing, a confidence-building performance that underlined the southpaw's ability to knuckle down when it matters. Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, fell in three sets to an opponent yet to be named in his most recent start—a wobble that raises questions about his form heading into this encounter. When a top-five player stumbles and a punter-favourite roughie arrives fresh off a win, the tennis tips start to write themselves.

Can Cerúndolo pull off the upset?

The head-to-head market has Auger-Aliassime as the pronounced favourite, and on paper that makes sense: a world No.4 against a world No.51, 4740 ranking points to 989. The Canadian's season record of 15 wins from 15 losses—an even split—suggests he's been competitive all year, while Cerúndolo sits at an identical 15-15 mark with one title to his name this season. Both have hovered around the 45-50% career win rate, so the class gulf isn't as wide as the rankings suggest.

But form is a punter's best mate, and right now Cerúndolo has it. Coming off that straight-sets win over Medjedovic, he's carrying momentum into a match against an opponent who just dropped three sets in a loss. Auger-Aliassime's stumble is the kind of crack that can widen under pressure, especially against a left-hander who can mix things up. The Canadian's best ranking of 4 suggests he's been there before, but Cerúndolo's best of 42 shows he's no mug—and a title this year proves he can win when it counts.

Limited recent head-to-head history between the two means we're betting the moment, not the past. And the moment favours the Argentine, who'll fancy his chances of dragging the favourite into uncomfortable territory. The odds reflect the rankings, but the form line whispers upset.

The Set Handicap battle

The Set Handicap sits at 1.5 sets, with Cerúndolo getting the start and Auger-Aliassime asked to cover. For the favourite to justify the line, he'll need to win in straight sets—a tall order against a player who's just proven he can win sets against quality opposition. Cerúndolo's win over Medjedovic was clean, but it took three sets to get the job done—evidence that he's comfortable in a scrap and unlikely to fold meekly.

Auger-Aliassime's last start saw him drop a set in a three-setter, which doesn't inspire confidence that he'll steamroll through here. If the Canadian's form is patchy and the Argentine's is building, the 1.5 sets feels generous to the underdog. A tight contest where Cerúndolo snags at least one set—if not more—looks the most likely yarn to unfold.

Total Games: a tighter affair than the odds suggest?

The Total Games line is set at 21.5, and the question is whether this one stretches into a marathon or gets done in a hurry. Cerúndolo's last outing was a three-setter, suggesting he's not afraid of the long haul, while Auger-Aliassime's recent loss also went the distance. If both players are willing to grind—and the form suggests they are—then a total nudging over 21.5 games feels within reach.

Under backers will be hoping the Canadian finds his rhythm early and stamps his authority, but that's a tough sell against a leftie who's won his last start and will back himself to hang in points. The over looks the play for punters chasing a bit of drama in the early hours.