ATP First Round tips: Shang eyes turnaround against Baez

First-round ATP tennis can be a minefield, and Thursday afternoon's clash between Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez looks every bit the scrap you'd expect from two players hunting form. Neither has set the world alight in recent starts, but this 1:00 pm AEST encounter shapes as a genuine coin flip—and that's where the yarn gets good.

Shang, the 250th-ranked Chinese left-hander, arrives off four consecutive defeats. His last outing saw him fall 6-2, 7-6 to Adrian Mannarino on 24 September, capping a stretch that included losses to Marco Trungelliti, Lorenzo Sonego, and Luciano Darderi. The lone bright spot in his last five was a home-court triumph over Andrey Rublev on 4 August—a result that reminds us he's capable when conditions align.

Baez, ranked 51st and sitting 48th in the ladder, hasn't fared much better. The Argentine right-hander also comes in off a loss, dropping 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 to Brandon Nakashima on 1 September. Before that, he fell to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, though wins over Hugo Grenier and Mattia Bellucci show he can still find the line when it matters. Career-wise, Baez holds the edge: a 132–133 record (50% win rate) and seven titles compared to Shang's 40–49 mark (45% career win rate). The head-to-head ledger reads 0-0—they've never met, adding a layer of intrigue to our tennis predictions today.

Who will win?

The bookies have Shang as the lean favourite at $1.62, with Baez out at $2.31. On paper, that might seem generous to the Chinese lefty given his recent struggles, but the market often tells a story beyond raw form.

Shang's last five overall—four losses punctuated by that Rublev scalp—doesn't inspire immediate confidence, but context matters. Three of those defeats came away from home, and his sole home win in that stretch was a quality one. Baez's last five reads similarly patchy: two losses, two wins, all mixed between home and away. The Argentine's most recent home outing was a win over Bellucci on 5 August, suggesting he can still perform when the court suits.

With no prior meetings to lean on, we're left weighing career pedigree against current trajectories. Baez's 52% year-to-date win rate (24–22) edges Shang's 36% (5–9), but the Chinese left-hander has shown he can trouble higher-ranked opponents when he finds rhythm. The favourite tag reflects that ceiling, even if the floor looks shaky.

This one feels tight. Shang's left-handed serve could be a point of difference if he settles early, but Baez's experience—seven career titles to Shang's one—gives him an edge in grinding out tight moments. The head-to-head market leans toward Shang, and while we're wary of his recent run, the price suggests punters reckon he's due to find something.

The Sets Handicap

The Sets line has Shang spotted at -1.5, meaning punters backing him at that handicap need a straight-sets win. Baez gets the +1.5 start, covering if he wins outright or pushes Shang to three.

Given both players' recent form, a straight-sets result either way feels ambitious. Shang's last five includes a three-setter against Mannarino and a five-set marathon with Trungelliti—he's been in tight battles. Baez, meanwhile, has mixed it up: his Nakashima loss was brutal, but the Grenier and Bellucci wins both went the distance in their own way.

The case for Baez +1.5 is simple: even if Shang edges it, we'd expect the Argentine to claim at least a set. His experience in tight matches and ability to lift in spurts should keep this competitive. Shang -1.5 backers need to believe the Chinese lefty rediscovers something close to the form that saw off Rublev—a big ask given the month he's had.

Total Games

The Total Games line sits at 22.5, with Over priced at $1.95 and Under at $1.85. This market hinges on how scrappy the contest becomes.

A straight-sets result (say, 6-3, 6-4) lands around 19 games—comfortably under. A three-setter with any tiebreaks or extended sets pushes toward or past 23 games. Shang's recent matches have featured tiebreaks (the Mannarino loss, for instance), and Baez has shown he can drag opponents into deep sets when his backhand finds the court.

With neither player in commanding form, we'd lean toward a longer match. Both have shown recent tendencies to lose serve and claw back—exactly the recipe for extra games. The Under price is shorter, suggesting the market expects efficiency, but the form lines tell us to expect a scrap. Over 22.5 Games has appeal if you're betting on both players making this a grind.