ATP quarter-final tips: Khachanov and Blockx both hunting redemption runs

Here's a yarn with potential: two punters who've each won their last start, squaring off in an ATP quarter-final at 4:30 am AEST on Thursday morning. Karen Khachanov—ranked 50th in the world with a 20-18 season ledger—meets Belgium's Alexander Blockx, sitting 34th and carrying a superior 20-10 year-to-date record. Neither has lifted silverware in 2026, but Blockx's 67 per cent win rate towers over Khachanov's 53. They've never met before, so the form line writes this story from scratch.

Khachanov's campaign has wobbled: recent results show a win over Roman Andres Burruchaga on 1 September, but before that he dropped consecutive matches—a tight three-setter on 6 August and another loss to Bernard Tomic on 30 July. Blockx, meanwhile, also arrives off a 1 September victory, sandwiched around a three-set defeat to Jiri Lehecka on 7 August and a win on 5 August. Both are chasing quarter-final momentum, and the market has Khachanov at $1.62 with Blockx out at $2.31.

Who takes the quarter-final?

The head-to-head ledger sits at 0-0, so we're weighing season body-of-work and the recent form sequences. Blockx's 67 per cent strike rate across 30 matches outstrips Khachanov's 53 across 38—a meaningful gap when you're hunting a semi-final berth. The Russian owns seven career titles and 334 wins against 245 losses (58 per cent lifetime), but that pedigree hasn't translated this year; he's gone 20-18 and collected zero trophies.

Blockx, by contrast, is still building his résumé—26 career wins, 20 losses, no titles yet—but the 20-10 season tally and current ranking of 34 (twelve spots higher than Khachanov's live 50) suggest he's the punter in better touch. Both won their most recent outings on 1 September, so neither carries the weight of a fresh defeat into this one.

The market leans toward Khachanov at $1.62, which prices him as the favourite despite the season-long form gap. That's likely a nod to his deeper experience—seven titles, a career-best ranking of eighth, and 334 wins banked. Still, Blockx's year-to-date numbers and ranking edge make the $2.31 quote worth a second look, particularly when the two have no prior meetings to anchor expectations. Our tennis predictions lean toward the Belgian's superior season form outweighing the Russian's résumé in a best-of-three quarter-final scrap.

Set handicap: can Blockx cover the spread?

The Sets market has Khachanov laying 1.5 sets at $2.25, with Blockx getting the 1.5-set start at $1.65. In plain terms: back Khachanov -1.5 and you need a straight-sets win; back Blockx +1.5 and he covers by winning outright or pushing it to a deciding set.

Recent results offer clues. Khachanov's 1 September win went four sets (6 6 6–3 0 1), his 6 August loss was a tight three-setter (4 6–6 7), and the 30 July defeat also stretched to three (2 4–6 6). Blockx's latest win on 1 September also needed four sets (6 6 6–3 4 2), while his 7 August loss to Lehecka went the distance (3 4–6 6). Both punters have been involved in multi-set battles recently, which tilts the narrative toward competitive frames rather than easy sweeps.

Given Blockx's superior season win rate and the absence of any head-to-head history to suggest Khachanov owns him, the 1.5-set start looks the safer play. Even if the Russian's experience tells late, the Belgian has shown he can push quality opponents—his only recent loss came against Lehecka in three tight sets. At $1.65, Blockx +1.5 sets offers value for a quarter-final that could easily go the distance.