ATP First Round tips: Jacquet rolls, Vallejo stumbles into tricky draw

Two players headed in opposite directions meet in the ATP First Round on Saturday at 4:00 am AEST, with Kyrian Jacquet riding momentum and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo searching for answers after a horror run. The Frenchman sits at world No. 121, but his recent form tells a very different story — three wins from his last five starts, including a barnstorming home stretch that's seen him unbeaten in three straight. Vallejo, ranked 66th, arrives with just one win from his last five and a losing streak that's now stretched to four matches.

This is the first meeting between the pair, so there's no history to lean on, but the form lines are about as clear as they come. Jacquet is coming off back-to-back wins on home soil, both straight-sets victories that suggest he's carrying genuine belief. Vallejo, meanwhile, hasn't tasted victory since mid-July and was last seen losing in straight sets to Juncheng Shang. The head-to-head market reflects that chasm — Jacquet is a short-priced favourite.

Who will win?

The match-winner case starts with the obvious: Kyrian Jacquet is on a three-match winning streak, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is on a four-match losing streak. That's not subtle, and the market knows it. Jacquet's last start saw him defeat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in straight sets on Thursday, while Vallejo went down in straight sets to Juncheng Shang on August 3. Form matters in tennis, and right now Jacquet has it in spades.

Dig a little deeper and the picture sharpens. Jacquet has won three of his last five overall, with both losses coming on the road in third-set shootouts. His home form is even better — three wins from three in his last five starts on friendly soil, all of them straight-sets demolitions. Vallejo's last five reads like a horror show: four losses and one win, and that sole victory came back on July 17. Since then, he's lost four straight, including two at home. The Paraguayan's year-to-date record of 10-9 (53%) looks respectable until you compare it to his recent run, which has been anything but.

The ranking gap tells its own story. Vallejo sits 55 spots higher at world No. 66, but rankings are backward-looking and Jacquet's trajectory is pointing up. The Frenchman's career win percentage of 31% is modest, but his 2026 year-to-date mark of 25% undersells what he's doing right now. Vallejo's career 54% win rate is solid, yet his last month has been a slog. This is a first-time meeting, so there's no head-to-head pattern to weigh, but when one bloke is rolling and the other can't buy a win, the market tends to know. Our tennis predictions lean heavily on the current form narrative, and Jacquet ticks every box.

Set Handicap — can Jacquet cover the spread?

The Set Handicap sits at -1.5 sets for Jacquet, meaning he needs a straight-sets win to cover. The line assumes he'll win, but asks whether Vallejo can pinch even one set along the way. Given Jacquet's home form — three straight-sets wins from three in his last five home starts — there's a strong case he can get the job done in two. Those wins over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Billy Harris, and Alexander Shevchenko all went the distance without dropping a set, and Jacquet's recent results suggest he's closing matches with authority.

Vallejo's recent struggles make it harder to see him stealing a set. His last five starts have yielded four losses, and three of those were straight-sets defeats. He's shown fight in the past — his loss to Luciano Darderi went to a third-set tiebreak — but right now the Paraguayan isn't stringing together enough quality to trouble someone in Jacquet's kind of nick. The spread asks Jacquet to do what he's been doing all week: win in straight sets. The evidence says he can.

Total Games — high or low?

The Total Games line is set at 22.5, and the case for the under is built on Jacquet's recent efficiency. His last three home wins were all straight-sets affairs, and when you add up the games from those matches, they averaged well below the mark. Vallejo's recent losses have also tended toward the clinical — his straight-sets defeat to Juncheng Shang was over quickly, as was his loss to Kilian Feldbausch. When one player is rolling and the other is struggling, matches tend to be shorter rather than longer.

The counter-case for the over would rely on Vallejo finding some resistance, but his form doesn't support it. He's lost four straight and hasn't shown the kind of fight that forces tiebreaks or drags out sets. Jacquet, meanwhile, has been ruthless at home. The line at 22.5 games assumes a competitive contest, but the form suggests this could be more one-sided. The under looks the sharper play.