ATP Second Round: Darderi v Hijikata – the yarn of two streaks colliding

Sunday morning at 7:05 am AEST brings us a Second Round clash that reads like a reunion between two blokes who've traded leather before — and one has done most of the damage. Luciano Darderi, the world number twenty Italian, squares off against Australia's Rinky Hijikata, ranked ninety-fifth, in a contest where both punters arrive riding the high of recent victories but carrying very different form narratives over the journey.

Darderi comes in with three wins on the trot — victories over Nuno Borges on Sunday 9 August, Shang Juncheng on 7 August, and another scalp on 5 August — a streak built on momentum and the kind of rhythm that turns three-setters into routine business. Hijikata, meanwhile, is coming off a gutsy three-set triumph over Gael Monfils on Friday 14 August, a result that snapped a run of three straight losses and offers a glimmer of hope for the Aussie underdog.

The head-to-head ledger tilts heavily toward the Italian: two wins to one across their three meetings, with Darderi claiming victories in August 2025 and May 2024, both in straight sets. Hijikata's lone success came earlier this year in March, when he rallied from a set down to pinch one in three. On hard courts specifically — the surface for this tournament — the rivalry is locked at one apiece, though Darderi's superior season record and current ranking suggest he's the sharper tool at present.

Who takes the points?

The form line tells a tale of contrasts. Darderi's recent run has been relentless: three consecutive wins, all coming in the space of a week, with his most recent outing a hard-fought three-setter against Borges that went the distance. Before that loss on 30 July, the Italian had been collecting wins with the kind of consistency that punters love to see — four victories from his last five starts overall.

Hijikata's road has been bumpier. His season record of eleven wins against fifteen losses paints the picture of a battler who's struggled to string results together, and that loss against Jaume Munar on 3 August — recorded twice in the form guide, suggesting a double-header or retracted result — sat heavy before the Monfils upset. The Australian has won just once in his last five starts, and that sole victory came at home, a handy boost but hardly the form surge you'd want heading into a date with a top-twenty operator.

Season-to-date, Darderi boasts a thirty-win, nineteen-loss record with one title to his name and a career win percentage of fifty-three. Hijikata's eleven-fifteen ledger and career mark of forty percent tell the story of a player still finding his feet at this level. The Italian's five career titles and best ranking of sixteenth give him pedigree that the Aussie, whose best rank sits at sixty-second, hasn't yet matched.

The market reflects all of this. Darderi is the clear favourite, and with good reason — the form, the ranking, and the head-to-head dominance all point the same way. Our tennis predictions lean toward the Italian to continue his winning run and edge closer to the business end of this tournament.

Can the line reveal value?

The Set Handicap sits at minus one-point-five sets for Darderi, meaning punters backing the Italian need him to win in straight sets to collect. It's a line that asks a fair bit given the pair have split their hard-court meetings one-all, and Hijikata has shown he can steal a set when the stars align — his March victory came after dropping the opener.

That said, Darderi's two victories in this rivalry both came in straights, and his current form suggests he's got the horsepower to steamroll an opponent carrying Hijikata's recent baggage. The Australian's lone win in his last five — and that against a Monfils who's been known to gift sets on off days — doesn't inspire confidence that he'll trouble a player of Darderi's calibre over the distance.

The Set Handicap asks whether Darderi can replicate those straight-sets performances from August 2025 and May 2024, and the evidence leans yes. Hijikata's form line is too patchy, his season record too modest, to suggest he'll force a deciding set against an opponent who's won three on the spin and holds a mental edge from past meetings.

Will it run long?

The Total Games line is set at twenty-two-point-five, and the yarn here revolves around whether this one drags into a third set or wraps up tidy in two. Looking at their three prior meetings, the combined game tallies paint a mixed picture: the March encounter went long with Hijikata prevailing in three sets, while Darderi's two wins were more clinical, both finished in straights but with competitive scorelines that suggest neither was a complete blowout.

Darderi's recent form has featured tight matches — his win over Borges included a second-set tiebreak, and the Shang encounter also went to a breaker in the second. Hijikata's victory over Monfils was a three-setter that would have pushed the game count north, but his losses to Munar and Shapovalov suggest he can be dispatched without much fuss when facing a superior opponent.

If Darderi maintains his current sharpness and Hijikata can't summon the upset magic he found against Monfils, this one finishes in two competitive sets — likely landing under the twenty-two-point-five mark. The Italian's ability to close out matches in straights when he's on, combined with the Australian's inconsistency, tips the scale toward a tidier affair than the line might suggest.