The ATP Second Round serves up a grudge match with a twist when Matteo Berrettini meets Mariano Navone at 4:00 am AEST on Thursday. The Italian holds a 3–1 edge in the all-time ledger, but the Argentine claimed their most recent clash in August — a three-set victory that sits inside both men's last five starts. Now they renew acquaintances with contrasting form lines and a pair of statement wins fresh in the books.
Berrettini, ranked 43rd, arrives off a commanding straight-sets victory over Stan Wawrinka on 1 September, while 49th-ranked Navone produced the upset of the fortnight when he outlasted Novak Djokovic in a five-set epic the night before. Both right-handers have endured patchy seasons — the Italian sits at 16–13 year-to-date, the Argentine 22–20 — but the gap between their career winning percentages (64 versus 46) hints at pedigree that could tilt this one.
Who will win?
The head-to-head market has Berrettini at the short quote and Navone as the outsider, reflecting both the historical dominance and the recent form reversal. The Italian's last five overall reads two wins and three losses, but two of those defeats came at Navone's hands in early August — a pair of identical three-set scorelines (3–7, 3–6, 6–6) bookending a hard-fought win over Titouan Droguet. Coming off that cruise past Wawrinka, Berrettini appears to have rediscovered some rhythm.
Navone's recent run tells a wild story: he took down Djokovic in a gruelling five-setter last start, then dropped back-to-back matches to James Duckworth and Arthur Fils before that landmark win. His last five sit at two wins, two losses — fewer starts logged than his opponent. The Argentine's year-to-date record of 22–20 includes a single title, while Berrettini has yet to lift silverware in 2026 despite ten career trophies.
When they last met in August, Navone claimed the away win in three sets, adding to an earlier victory over Berrettini on the same day. Before that, the Italian had won their two previous encounters in April 2025 and April 2024, both on clay. The head-to-head series stands at 2–0 Navone on clay and 0–1 Berrettini on hard court, suggesting surface context has mattered — but this week's neutral ATP hard court offers little historical guidance beyond the raw 3–1 ledger favouring the Italian.
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Head-to-head context
2–1
Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone
Can Berrettini cover the spread?
The Sets market has Berrettini laying 1.5 sets, asking him to win in straight frames to collect. His last five overall includes just two victories — the Wawrinka demolition and the Droguet three-setter — so clean sweeps have been rare. Navone's giant-killing effort against Djokovic went the full five, and his earlier loss to Duckworth lasted three sets, pointing to a player who extends matches even in defeat.
The Italian's superior career winning percentage and ten titles suggest he owns the firepower to close out sets when ahead, but his recent three-set losses to Navone (twice) and Jiri Lehecka show he has leaked sets to lesser-ranked opponents. Navone has proven he can steal frames from elite opposition — taking two off Djokovic speaks volumes — and the 2–1 head-to-head in his favour on clay hints at a player who can trouble Berrettini's rhythm when conditions suit.
Laying 1.5 sets demands dominance from the first ball, and while Berrettini's Wawrinka win showcased that level, his overall form line offers little confidence he can replicate it against an opponent who has twice beaten him in recent weeks. The spread feels generous to Navone's chances of nicking at least a set.
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Will the match go long?
The Total Games line sits at 38.5, with both over and under priced identically. Recent head-to-head meetings offer a useful guide: their August clashes produced multi-set marathons with tiebreaks scattered across the scorelines, while their earlier clay encounters in 2025 and 2024 also extended deep. A 38.5-game total would be cleared by any match going to three competitive sets, and both men's recent form suggests they rarely fold quietly.
Berrettini's last five includes three three-set affairs, while Navone's Djokovic epic spanned five sets and his Duckworth loss went three. The pattern across their rivalry — four matches, all decided in three or more sets — points to tight contests that rack up games. Neither player has shown a tendency to steamroll through opponents this season, and the Argentine's resilience in particular suggests he will extend frames even when trailing.
With their head-to-head history trending towards extended battles and Navone arriving off a five-set classic, the over holds appeal. The Italian's improved form may tilt the result his way, but the journey there looks likely to produce plenty of games along the way, especially if Navone's giant-slaying confidence carries into the early sets.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 38.5.
Hit rate vs 38.5
The verdict
This rematch pits Berrettini's pedigree and historical edge against Navone's recent momentum and proven ability to trouble the Italian. The market has the right favourite, but the margin feels tighter than the odds suggest. Berrettini's career credentials and Wawrinka demolition point to a player capable of reasserting himself, yet Navone's twin August wins over him and the Djokovic scalp reveal an opponent in confident form who won't surrender cheaply.
For punters hunting value in our tennis predictions, the total games market offers the cleanest angle. Both men have shown they can extend matches, their head-to-head ledger is littered with tiebreaks and three-setters, and Navone's resilience suggests he will make Berrettini earn every hold. The over looks the play, with the match-winner market too tight to call with conviction given the recent form reversal between these two.