Jodar v Fils tips: Spaniard hunts repeat in quarterfinal rematch

They've met once before, just a fortnight ago, and Rafael Jodar left the court with the chocolates. Now the pair are back for another crack in Tuesday's ATP quarterfinal, 8:00 am AEST, and the market reckons we're in for a closer affair this time around.

Jodar sits favourite at the shorter price, but Fils has rattled off three straight wins since that July loss and the rematch looms as a genuine coin-flip. Both players roll in on five-star form runs — Jodar unbeaten in his last five overall, Fils carrying three consecutive wins including a tidy dismissal of Cameron Norrie on Sunday. The yarn writes itself: can the Spaniard do it again, or does Fils settle the ledger?

Who takes the rematch?

Jodar's form line reads like a punter's dream: five wins on the spin dating back to August 1, culminating in Sunday's straight-sets dismissal of Jiri Lehecka. That latest outing saw him close out 6–3, 6–3 in an away assignment, and he's barely put a foot wrong all tournament. The Spaniard owns the head-to-head blueprint, too — when they clashed on July 29, Jodar prevailed in three sets (6–3, 7–6) on Fils' home patch.

Fils, meanwhile, is coming off his own confidence-building win over Norrie (6–2, 7–6), and his last-five sample shows three victories from four starts. The lone blemish? That very loss to Jodar in late July. Since then he's strung together wins over Mariano Navone and an unidentified opponent before dispatching Norrie, so the Frenchman is hardly limping into this quarterfinal.

The head-to-head history is thin — just the one meeting — but Jodar holds that psychological edge. He's also riding the longer win streak and carries the market's respect as favourite. For our tennis betting tips, the Spaniard's unbeaten run and previous victory over this exact opponent make him the lean in what should be a tight contest.

Set Handicap: Jodar to cover the spread

The Set Handicap sits at ±1.5 sets, with Jodar required to lay that buffer and Fils getting the 1.5-set start. Given Jodar's clean five-match winning streak and the fact that he's already beaten Fils in a three-set affair, the case for backing the Spaniard to cover has merit.

Their July encounter went the distance — Jodar won in three — so there's evidence this matchup can produce a clear result rather than a tight two-setter. If Jodar replicates that form and closes out in straight sets or wins comfortably in three, the -1.5 line lands. Fils has shown he can push quality opponents (his loss to Jodar was competitive across three sets), but the momentum sits squarely with the favourite here.

Jodar's record of five consecutive wins, including victories in multiple three-set battles, suggests he's comfortable grinding out results when needed. The Set Handicap offers a way to back that form at a longer price than the straight head-to-head market.

Total Games: over the line

The Total Games line is pegged at 22.5, and the case for the over hinges on their previous meeting and recent form patterns. When Jodar and Fils met in July, the match produced three competitive sets (6–3, 7–6) — a scoreline that would comfortably sail over 22.5 games if replicated.

Both players have shown they can extend sets this tournament. Jodar's last-five results include multiple three-set wins with tight scorelines (6–1, 6–4; 6–6, 6–3; 6–6, 7–4), while Fils pushed Norrie to a second-set tiebreak in his most recent outing. If this quarterfinal follows the script of their first encounter — competitive tennis with at least one set going deep — the total games count climbs quickly.

Even a straight-sets result could flirt with the line if one or both sets go to a tiebreak or run tight. The head-to-head history and both players' recent form suggest a contest that won't be a procession, making the over on 22.5 Total Games a worthwhile angle.