The first round at this ATP event throws up a mismatch on paper when world No.13 Rafael Jodar meets Australia's Thanasi Kokkinakis, currently languishing at No.417, on Wednesday, 2 September, 7:00 am AEST. The Spanish teenager arrives carrying five consecutive wins into the draw, while Kokkinakis is searching for form after another loss in his most recent outing.
The market reflects the gulf: Jodar opens at $1.09 to collect the straight-sets win punters expect, while Kokkinakis sits out at $7.50 — long odds for a player whose 2–3 year-to-date record tells the story of a campaign gone sideways. With no previous meetings between the pair, this shapes as a classic young gun against a veteran struggling to recapture the spark that once saw him reach a career-high ranking of No.65.
Who wins this first-round clash?
Jodar's form line reads like a procession. The 13th-ranked Spaniard has reeled off five wins on the trot, capped by a straight-sets dismantling of Jiri Lehecka on 9 August — his most recent start. Before that, he knocked over Lorenzo Musetti twice in the space of three days, both times in straight sets, and navigated a pair of tight three-setters earlier in the run. His 36–14 year-to-date record (72% win rate) includes a title, and four of his last five matches have come at home venues where he looks utterly comfortable.
Kokkinakis, by contrast, is coming off a loss. On 14 August he fell to Nuno Borges in a five-set marathon that stretched to 7–6 in the decider — another painful near-miss for the Australian. That defeat followed two more losses in late July, with only a single win against Evan Zhu breaking the slide. His 2–3 record this season is a shadow of the 83–102 career ledger that sits at 45%, and right now the 417th-ranked right-hander looks a long way from the player who once cracked the top 70.
With no head-to-head history to lean on, we're left weighing current form and ranking, and both metrics point one way. Jodar has won five straight; Kokkinakis has lost three of his last four. The $1.09 quote might be short, but it's hard to argue with the market's assessment when the Spaniard is rolling and the Aussie is scrambling.
Tipped at $1.09 (1:37 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Can Kokkinakis snag a set on the handicap?
The Sets Handicap sits at –2.5 in Jodar's favour, meaning punters backing the Spaniard need a straight-sets romp to collect. The case is straightforward: four of Jodar's last five wins at home have come in straight sets, and even the lone three-setter saw him prevail comfortably once he found his rhythm. Kokkinakis, meanwhile, has managed only one win in four starts — and that lone success came against Evan Zhu, hardly a scalp to hang your hat on.
But tennis is a funny game, and Kokkinakis has shown he can stretch opponents deep into deciding sets (witness that 7–6 fifth against Borges). If the Australian can nick an early break or force a tie-break, the -2.5 line starts to look a touch vulnerable. For those chasing value, the +2.5 on Kokkinakis at least offers the safety net of a set won — a low bar, but one that keeps the bet alive if the underdog can summon a flash of the form that once had him inside the top 70.
Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total Games: expect a straight-sets clinic
The Total Games line is pegged at 32.5, and the scorelines from Jodar's recent wins suggest we're looking at a swift conclusion. His straight-sets victories over Musetti and Lehecka clocked in well under that mark, and even when he's been pushed to three sets the match hasn't ballooned into a games marathon. Kokkinakis has shown he can extend matches — that Borges loss ran deep into a fifth set — but only when he's competitive, and nothing in his 2–3 season record suggests he'll trouble Jodar enough to drag this one past 33 games.
The Under 32.5 Games makes sense if you believe the market: a dominant Jodar performance that wraps up in two tidy sets. Our tennis betting tips lean that way, given the Spaniard's form and the Australian's struggles to string together wins.
Tipped at $1.90 (1:37 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 32.5.
Hit rate vs 32.5
The verdict: Spanish teen too strong
Jodar's five-match winning streak and top-15 ranking tell the story of a player in command, while Kokkinakis is battling just to stay relevant at No.417. The head-to-head ledger is blank, but the form lines couldn't be clearer. Expect the young Spaniard to march into the second round without breaking a sweat, and punters chasing value might find it in the low-games total rather than the prohibitive win price. Either way, this shapes as a mismatch that ends in straight sets.