The Third Round of the ATP Cincinnati Open delivers a fascinating contrast in form and momentum when Jakub Mensik meets Rinky Hijikata on Tuesday, 18 August at 7:00 am AEST. The Czech 16th seed arrives riding a four-match winning streak that's carried him through the draw unbeaten, while Australia's Hijikata has found his rhythm at the perfect time with back-to-back victories on home soil that've injected fresh belief into his campaign.
This is a maiden meeting between the two — the head-to-head ledger sits at 0-0 across all surfaces — which adds an element of the unknown to a match that already looks wide open on paper. Mensik sits comfortably inside the world's top 20 at 16th, a reflection of a season that's yielded 29 wins against 14 losses and a title already in the cabinet. Hijikata, ranked 95th, has endured a tougher year at 12-15, but his recent wins over Gael Monfils and Luciano Darderi suggest he's hitting his straps at just the right moment.
Who wins the match?
The market has Mensik as the clear favourite, and it's not hard to see why. His last five outings read like a masterclass in consistency: wins over Botic Van De Zandschulp on Monday, 10 August, Terence Atmane on Saturday, 8 August, and Trevor Svajda on Wednesday, 29 July, all taken in straight business. That's four straight victories without dropping a match, and his career record of 90-55 (62 per cent) dwarfs Hijikata's 47-69 (41 per cent) mark. The Czech has been here before — 29 wins this year alone speak to a player who knows how to win at this level.
But Hijikata's story is the one worth watching. Coming off a win over Darderi on Monday, 17 August, he's now strung together two consecutive victories at home — the Monfils scalp on Friday, 14 August was a gutsy three-setter that showcased his ability to grind through the gears. Those two wins at home represent his best recent sequence, and while his overall last five shows three losses (to Jaume Munar twice on Monday, 3 August, and Denis Shapovalov on Wednesday, 29 July), the timing of this mini-run gives him something to lean on.
The head-to-head is blank, so there's no historical blueprint for either player. Mensik's superior ranking and season-long form make him the logical pick, but Hijikata's home-court surge adds a layer of intrigue that shouldn't be dismissed. The Australian will need to produce the form he showed against Monfils and Darderi, and then some, to bridge the gap.
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Head-to-head context
0–1
Rinky Hijikata vs Jakub Mensik
Can Hijikata cover the set handicap?
The Set Handicap sits at 1.5 sets, with Hijikata getting a start and Mensik required to lay the spread. On the surface, Mensik's unbeaten recent run makes him a tempting lay — he's been clinical in finishing matches without extended drama. But the handicap asks whether Hijikata can nick at least one set, and his last two outings suggest he's capable of pushing deeper into matches than his ranking might suggest.
Against Monfils, Hijikata went the distance in a three-set thriller, and while Darderi fell in straighter fashion, both results show a player who can compete set-by-set when his game clicks. Mensik, for all his consistency, hasn't been tested to the same degree in his recent wins — the Van De Zandschulp match was tight on paper, but the rest have been relatively routine. If Hijikata can replicate the level that troubled Monfils, there's scope for him to stay within touching distance across the match and potentially steal a set.
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Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Rinky Hijikatalast 5
Jakub Mensiklast 5
Total Games: will it run long?
The Total Games line is set at 22.5, a number that invites scrutiny given the contrasting profiles on show. Mensik's recent matches have been efficient — his wins have generally been straight-sets affairs that haven't required extended rallies or dramatic comebacks. That suggests a lean towards the under if he dominates as expected.
But Hijikata's home-court wins tell a different story. The Monfils encounter was a marathon that stretched deep into a third set, and even the Darderi match had moments of resistance. If Hijikata can make Mensik work for his sets — and there's evidence he can — the total has room to push over the line. The 0-0 head-to-head leaves us guessing on their dynamic, but the Australian's recent willingness to scrap suggests this won't be a quick in-and-out job.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.
Hit rate vs 22.5
The verdict
Mensik's form and ranking make him the rightful favourite, but Hijikata's home-court momentum adds a wrinkle that's worth respecting. The Czech should have the tools to get the job done, but the Australian's recent wins suggest he won't go quietly. For punters chasing value, there's a case to be made that Hijikata can keep it competitive enough to make the handicap and total interesting propositions. This is the kind of Third Round clash where the underdog's recent surge collides with the favourite's season-long consistency — and those collisions rarely play out as cleanly as the market suggests. Our tennis tips lean into Mensik's superior pedigree while acknowledging Hijikata's ability to push the match into deeper waters.