ATP First Round tips: Rublev looks the steadier hand despite shaky recent form

Thursday afternoon's ATP First Round duel between Tallon Griekspoor and Andrey Rublev shapes as a fascinating clash between two players coming off losses but heading in very different directions. The match gets underway at 1:00 pm AEST, with Rublev the short-priced favourite despite recent wobbles and Griekspoor hunting an upset as a sizeable underdog.

The head-to-head ledger heavily favours the Russian — he's won three of their four career meetings, including the most recent encounter back in February when Griekspoor managed to snare a rare win with a 7–5 6 scoreline. That result stands alone in a rivalry otherwise dominated by Rublev, who claimed straight-sets victories in their three prior clashes across hard, grass, and clay. The pattern suggests Griekspoor can stay competitive on his day, but consistency against this opponent has eluded him.

Who will win?

Rublev arrives ranked 24th in the world with a 31-18 record this season, a 63 per cent win rate that dwarfs Griekspoor's 13-19 mark and 41 per cent success. The Dutch right-hander sits 55th and has struggled to string wins together, managing just two victories in his last five outings. Coming off a three-set loss to Ben Shelton on 1 September — a match that slipped away 6 1 6 2–1 6 7 6 — Griekspoor has been unable to build momentum, and his last-five form reads as a patchwork of narrow wins and costly defeats.

Rublev's recent results tell a more encouraging story despite his own last-start stumble against Daniil Medvedev on 29 September, a straight-sets affair that ended 5 4–7 6. Before that setback he'd strung together three consecutive wins, including a marathon five-setter against Marin Cilic and comfortable home victories over Hugo Gaston and Kyrian Jacquet. That run underscores a player capable of grinding through tough matches and resetting quickly — traits that have underpinned a career record of 400-227.

The market reflects the gulf in class and form: Rublev sits at short odds to claim the match, while Griekspoor drifts out as the rank outsider. With the Russian holding the h2h advantage and the sharper recent trajectory, the match-winner case leans heavily toward the lower-ranked favourite finding a way through.

Set handicap in focus

The Sets market offers Rublev at -1.5 and Griekspoor at +1.5, a line that demands the Russian win in straight sets to cover. Griekspoor's last-five form includes two home wins — 3 6 6–6 4 3 against Matteo Arnaldi and 7 7–6 5 over Lorenzo Sonego — that went the distance, suggesting he can extend opponents when the conditions suit. Rublev, for his part, claimed straight-sets wins in two of his last three victories, but that Cilic marathon proves he's not immune to being dragged into long matches.

Given Griekspoor's ability to snatch sets even in defeat and the narrow scorelines dotted through his recent results, backing him to stay within 1.5 sets carries appeal. The h2h record shows three Rublev wins — two in straight sets, one that went to three — but also that February upset where Griekspoor claimed both frames. If the Dutchman can fire early, he has the tools to make this competitive enough to land the start.

Total Games market

The Total Games line sits at 23.5, a number that invites scrutiny given the matchup's potential for tight frames. Their four career meetings have produced scorelines ranging from narrow three-setters to more lopsided affairs, and the February result — 7 7–5 6 — points to the possibility of extended games when both players settle. Rublev's five-setter against Cilic clocked in at 6 6 6 6 7–7 7 0 2 6, a mammoth contest that would sail over any reasonable total, while Griekspoor's recent three-set losses have featured enough competitive games to suggest he won't fold meekly.

The over case hinges on both men holding serve effectively and forcing tiebreaks or long sets, a scenario that feels plausible given Rublev's tendency to grind and Griekspoor's knack for staying in frames even when outclassed. If this one goes three sets — and the set handicap argument suggests it might — the total should comfortably clear 23.5 games. Our tennis tips lean toward the overs on that basis.