Saturday morning's ATP First Round showdown at 5:30 am AEST pits a surging Frenchman against an Italian looking to rediscover rhythm. Titouan Droguet (world 119) arrives on a three-match winning run, while Matteo Berrettini (world 40) is coming off consecutive losses — including back-to-back defeats to Mariano Navone on the 4th of August.
The pair have never met, so punters are flying blind on head-to-head form. Instead, we're weighing Droguet's recent momentum against Berrettini's superior pedigree: the Italian owns a career record of 224–127 (64 per cent) and a career-best ranking of world number six, while Droguet sits at 13–12 lifetime (52 per cent). On paper it's experience versus hot form, and the market reflects that tension.
Who will win?
Droguet's last five starts show three wins and two losses. The three victories all came in his most recent stretch: a 7–6, 6–1 win over Alexei Popyrin on Wednesday the 12th, followed by a straight-sets dismissal of Stefanos Sakellaridis (6–4, 6–2) last Thursday. Before that hot patch he dropped a pair of identical matches to Brandon Nakashima on the 7th (6–2, 4–6, 6–7). The Frenchman is unbeaten in his last three outings and carries that confidence into a first-round test against far loftier opposition.
Berrettini's recent form tells a rougher story. His last start was a three-set loss to Navone (3–7, 6–3, 6–6) on the 4th — a result that appears twice in his last-five ledger, suggesting a duplicate entry or round-robin scenario. Either way, the Italian has dropped his most recent outing and three of his last five overall. His two wins in that span came against Arthur Fils (6–7, 6–4, 6–5) and Stan Wawrinka (6–7, 7–6, 7–6), both grinding three-setters that highlight his capacity to scrap when needed.
The ranking gulf is real — Berrettini sits 79 places higher and boasts ten career titles to Droguet's zero — but the 40th-ranked Italian hasn't looked sharp lately. Droguet, by contrast, has won three on the trot and will sense an opportunity to claim a signature scalp. The head-to-head market has Berrettini favourite, and rightly so given his résumé, but the Frenchman's current trajectory makes this a genuine contest.
Tipped at $1.74 (9:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini
Set Handicap: can Droguet keep it close?
The Set Handicap sits at ±1.5 sets, meaning a Droguet cover requires him to win outright or push Berrettini to a deciding set. The Italian's last five matches have all gone the distance — no straight-set wins or losses in that sample — so there's a pattern of competitive tennis even when he's struggled for wins.
Droguet's recent form includes two tight three-setters against Nakashima (both losses) and a pair of more comfortable two-set victories over Popyrin and Sakellaridis. He's shown he can win quickly when on top but also hang tough when the margin is fine. Given Berrettini's propensity for extended battles and Droguet's current confidence, a close match feels likely. The French underdog getting a 1.5-set start looks a shrewd angle if you fancy him to stay within touching distance.
Tipped at $1.40 (9:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Titouan Droguetlast 5
Matteo Berrettinilast 4
Total Games: will we see a marathon?
The Total Games line is set at 23.5. Berrettini's last five starts have all been three-set epics — his wins over Fils and Wawrinka both eclipsed 30 games, while his losses to Navone and Dimitrov also spilled deep into deciding sets. That track record points firmly toward the over.
Droguet's ledger is more mixed: his wins over Sakellaridis (6–4, 6–2, total 18 games) and Popyrin (7–6, 6–1, total 20) came in relatively tidy fashion, while his pair of Nakashima defeats (6–2, 4–6, 6–7 each time) landed at 25 games apiece. With no head-to-head history to lean on, we're backing Berrettini's recent tendency to grind and Droguet's ability to compete on serve to push this match past the line. The Italian's five consecutive three-setters make a strong case for plenty of games, and our tennis predictions lean toward the over.
Tipped at $1.90 (9:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.
Hit rate vs 23.5
The verdict
Berrettini's class and ten-title résumé make him the rightful favourite, but Droguet's three-match winning streak and the Italian's recent wobbles create genuine intrigue. We're leaning toward Berrettini to edge it — experience and big-match nous should tell in the crunch moments — but expect Droguet to make him earn every game. If you're hunting value, the Frenchman on the Set Handicap offers a punter-friendly insurance policy, while the over on Total Games aligns with Berrettini's recent habit of going deep.
First ball at 5:30 am AEST on Saturday morning. Set the alarm — this one shapes as a thriller.