Alina Charaeva meets Zheng Qinwen in Round 4 on Wednesday, 7 October at 3:00 pm AEDT, and the ladder tells the story before a ball is struck. Zheng sits at world No. 54 with 1,083 points; Charaeva is ranked 118th on 648. That 64-place gulf is reflected in the head-to-head market, where Zheng is a short-priced favourite.
Both players arrive with wins in the bag, but the depth of recent form tips the scales heavily. Charaeva has two consecutive victories to her name, while Zheng has strung together three in a row and looks to be hitting a purple patch at exactly the right time. The ranking gap and the current run of results shape this as a test of whether the underdog can lift, or whether class and momentum prove too much.
Can Charaeva upset the rankings?
Alina Charaeva is coming off a win on Saturday, 3 October, defeating Elena Rybakina 3–6, 6–4, 6–3. Before that she dispatched Yuliia Starodubtseva 5–7, 6–7(5), 2 on Thursday, 1 October. Two wins is a tidy return, and the Armenian right-hander has compiled a 9–7 record this season — a 56 per cent win rate that suggests she can be competitive when the draw falls her way.
Zheng Qinwen, though, has been on a tear. Her last start on Monday, 5 October saw her beat Marie Bouzkova 7–4, 7–6(6), 5 in straight sets. That followed victories over Anna Kalinskaya (6–6, 3–7, 4–0) and Shi Han (7–4, 6–6, 2) in the days prior. Three wins in a week is elite form, and Zheng's only blemish in her last four outings was a three-set loss to Alexandra Eala back in late July.
The head-to-head market reflects this gulf: Zheng is quoted at short odds, Charaeva at long. With no shared history between the pair and no record on this surface in the pack, the lean is firmly toward the player who has momentum, ranking points, and three consecutive victories to call upon. Charaeva has shown she can win tough three-setters, but the step up in class here is steep.
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The favourite's roll continues
Zheng's current run is the kind of form line punters want to see when backing a short price. She's won three straight, and her two most recent wins at home — over Kalinskaya and Shi Han — suggest she's comfortable on familiar courts. The pack offers no total or line market, so the play is straightforward: back the player who is ranked higher, playing better, and rolling through opponents.
Charaeva has fought hard in her two wins, but neither opponent carries the ranking weight that Zheng does. The 64-place gap on the ladder is not a margin that gets bridged easily, especially when the favourite is in this kind of nick. Our tennis predictions lean heavily on Zheng to make it four in a row and move through to the next round.