Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova have played out enough tight three-setters to fill a highlights reel, and Friday morning's quarter-final clash at 6:00 am AEST shapes as another chapter in a rivalry that's always delivered theatre. Pegula holds a perfect 5–0 record over Anisimova, but three of those wins went the distance, and the most recent meeting in February saw the world number three scrape through 1–6 6–4 3 in a match that could've swung either way.
Both arrive at this one coming off losses in their last starts, which adds a dash of redemption narrative to an already spicy clash. Anisimova went down in straight sets to Elina Svitolina on Sunday, while Pegula fell to Diana Shnaider the same day. The question now is who rebounds better, and whether the underdog can finally crack a code she's never solved.
Who wins the quarter-final?
The market has Pegula as the clear favourite at 1.71, and it's not hard to see why. She's ranked third in the world and boasts a year-to-date record of 43–11 with two titles already in the bag. Her career head-to-head dominance is total: five wins from five, and four of those came on hard courts. The last time they met, Pegula rallied from a set down to take it in three, and the pattern across their meetings suggests she thrives in the big moments even when Anisimova pushes her.
Anisimova, ranked 10th, has put together a solid season (20–10) but arrives on the back of that Svitolina loss. Her last five results show two wins and one loss, though one of those wins was a walkover. She took out Nikola Bartunkova in a tight three-setter on Friday, which suggests she's finding some touch, but the weight of history here is hard to ignore.
Pegula's last five reads three wins and two losses, including that defeat to Shnaider. Still, she's shown an ability to reset quickly—witness her wins over Kamilla Rakhimova and a pair of TBD opponents in the lead-up. The home court hasn't been a fortress (three wins, two losses in her last five at this venue), but her overall consistency and the head-to-head record make her the logical pick. For those hunting tennis tips this week, the match-winner market leans heavily toward the world number three, and the story of their rivalry supports that lean.
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Head-to-head context
0–0
Vivian Wolff vs Oleksandra Oliynykova
Set handicap: Can Anisimova keep it close?
The set handicap is quoted at 1.5 sets, meaning Pegula backers need her to win in straight sets, while Anisimova supporters get home if she wins or pushes it to three. The history between these two is instructive: three of their five meetings went the full distance, and Anisimova won the opening set in that February clash before fading. That pattern suggests she's more than capable of pinching a set, even if she hasn't yet found a way to close out the match.
Pegula's recent form includes a couple of tight three-setters herself, so the idea of a clean sweep feels ambitious. If you're leaning toward Anisimova on the set handicap at +1.5, there's a reasonable case—she's got the firepower to trouble Pegula for a set, and the head-to-head record shows she's done it before. The flip side is Pegula's ability to lock in when it matters, which keeps this one in the speculative basket rather than a confident swing.
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Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Vivian Wolfflast 5
Oleksandra Oliynykovalast 5
Total games: Tracking the over/under
The total games line is set at 22.5, and the past meetings between these two offer a mixed picture. Their February encounter produced 20 games, while the January clash clocked 19. The August 2024 meeting went 25 games, and the April 2024 thriller ran to 29. That range suggests variance is baked into this rivalry, but the recent trend has leaned toward shorter affairs.
Given both players are coming off losses and may take a set to find rhythm, there's a case for the total creeping over 22.5, especially if we see another three-setter. But if Pegula asserts early and Anisimova can't sustain the pressure, the under becomes live. The lack of recent high-game totals between them nudges us toward the under at 1.80, but it's a lean rather than a lock.
Tipped at $1.80 (1:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.
Hit rate vs 22.5
The verdict
Pegula's head-to-head dominance and superior season record make her the logical favourite, even if both players are coming off defeats. Anisimova's shown she can trouble the world number three for stretches, but she's yet to find a way to finish the job. For the punters backing their opinions at the early hour, Pegula on the head-to-head looks the play, while Anisimova +1.5 sets offers some spice if you believe the underdog can snag a set before the inevitable. Either way, this one's a genuine quarter-final, and the yarn between these two suggests it'll be worth the alarm clock.