Ann Li and Donna Vekic square off in the Second Round on Thursday morning at 9:30 am AEST, a rematch of their September 2021 meeting where Li prevailed in straight sets. The American sits fourth-ranked in this field at world number 28, while the Croatian checks in at 39th — but recent form tells a messier story than ladder positions suggest.
Li comes in as favourite on the head-to-head market despite dropping her last start to Elena Rybakina in three sets, while Vekic has won just one of her past five outings. The set handicap and total games markets offer punters alternate angles on what shapes as a contest between a higher-ranked player searching for rhythm and a dangerous opponent capable of winning ugly when the pressure mounts.
Who takes it?
Li's season sits dead even at 22-22, her 50 per cent win rate a world away from the kind of consistency you'd expect from a player who climbed as high as 28th in the rankings. Her recent form offers little comfort: across her last three starts she's managed just one win, sandwiched between losses to Magdalena Frech and that Rybakina setback on August 8th. The Rybakina defeat stings hardest — a three-setter where Li took the opener but couldn't sustain the level through the back end of the match.
Vekic arrives off a straight-sets win over Talia Gibson on August 31st, her first victory in five outings after a brutal stretch that included three-set heartbreak against Diane Parry, Xinyu Wang and a pair of losses to TBD and Viktorija Golubic. The Croatian's 11-12 year-to-date record undersells her pedigree — five career titles and a best ranking of 17th — but right now she's a player searching for the form that once saw her trouble the tour's elite.
The only time these two met, Li handled Vekic in straight sets back in September 2021 on hard courts, the same surface they'll contest on Thursday. That result carries weight, especially given both players hold identical 1-0 hard-court records against each other in the pack's data. Li's ranking advantage and head-to-head dominance explain why she's been installed as favourite, even if her last-start stumble clouds the picture for punters chasing our tennis predictions this week.
Tipped at $1.58 (7:35 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linette
Can Li cover the handicap?
The set handicap market has Li laying 1.5 sets at a price, asking her to win in straight sets to salute. That's a tall order for a player who's dropped two of her last three and couldn't close out Rybakina despite winning the first set. Vekic, meanwhile, gets a 1.5-set start — meaning she can lose in three and still cover.
The form line favours taking the start here. Vekic's recent losses have largely gone the distance: three-setters against Parry, Wang, TBD and Golubic suggest she's competitive even when the result doesn't fall her way. Li's fragility in deciding sets — evidenced by that Rybakina collapse — makes a comfortable two-set win feel optimistic given the context of her current run.
Tipped at $1.55 (7:35 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Darya Astakhovalast 1
Magda Linettelast 5
Games total in focus
The total games line sits at 22.5, and the recent yarn from both players points toward a longer contest. Li's last outing against Rybakina ran to three sets with scorelines of 2, 5–6, and 7 — tight margins throughout. Vekic's August 31st win over Gibson went 6, 4, 6–2, 6, 3, a three-setter that would comfortably sail over this number.
When these two met in 2021, the match finished 6, 6–3, 1 — a two-set result that would land under, but the current form suggests neither player is closing out opponents cleanly. Vekic's recent three-set battles and Li's inability to maintain control in deciders make the over an angle worth considering, especially if the first set goes tight and forces a third.
Tipped at $2.00 (7:35 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.
Hit rate vs 22.5
The verdict
Li holds the ranking edge, the head-to-head advantage, and the market's backing, but her recent form demands caution. Vekic's lone win in five starts keeps her dangerous without offering much confidence in a straight upset. The set handicap feels the safer play for those wanting exposure to Vekic's ability to push matches deep, while the games total over respects the scrap both players have shown lately, even when results haven't followed.
For punters backing Li to justify favouritism, the head-to-head result and ranking gap provide the foundation, but expect her to earn it the hard way against an opponent who's made a habit of dragging matches into deciding sets this month.