There's a gulf in class and form when Elina Svitolina meets Maya Joint in the Second Round on Thursday at 4:00 am AEST. The world number nine Ukrainian arrives riding a four-match winning streak, her most recent outing a straight-sets dismissal of Amanda Anisimova on August 9th. Joint, ranked 72nd, has dropped her last two starts and sits deep in the draw as a clear underdog.
The betting board reflects that chasm. Svitolina opens as a prohibitive favourite, and the only real question for punters is where the value sits — the match-winner market, the sets handicap, or the total games line. Our tennis tips will unpack each angle, starting with the Ukrainian's credentials and the Australian's uphill task.
Who will win?
Svitolina's last five starts tell a clean story: four wins from four, all delivered in straight sets or tight three-set battles that she controlled. Coming off that win over Anisimova — a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline that left no doubt — she's in the sort of rhythm that makes short work of lower-ranked opponents. Her season record of 43 wins against just 12 losses underscores a 78 per cent win rate, and her career tally of 465 victories speaks to a player who knows how to close out matches.
Joint's year-to-date numbers paint a different picture: eight wins, nineteen losses, a 30 per cent win rate. Her last start was a loss to Liudmila Samsonova on August 8th, a three-set affair where she couldn't sustain her early momentum (5-7, 7-6, 2-6). Before that, another three-set defeat on July 31st. The only bright spot in her recent form is a straight-sets win over Whitney Osuigwe on July 28th, but that lone triumph is sandwiched between two defeats.
The two have never met on tour — the head-to-head record stands at 0-0 across all surfaces — so there's no historical precedent to lean on. But when you stack a player with 20 career titles and a career-best ranking of third against someone whose best was 28th and who's managed just two titles, the gap is obvious. The Ukrainian's firepower and consistency should be too much for the Australian to handle.
Tipped at $1.09 (1:18 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Carole Monnet vs Sloane Stephens
Sets handicap: can Joint force a set?
The sets line is where this contest gets interesting. Svitolina is quoted at -1.5 sets, meaning she needs a straight-sets victory to cover. Joint gets the +1.5 start, so punters backing the Aussie just need her to pinch a set to collect.
Looking at Svitolina's recent form, three of her last four wins came in straight sets, with only that August 5th encounter going the distance (6-7, 7-6, 6-4). She's clearly capable of steamrolling opponents when the mood strikes. Joint, meanwhile, has shown she can push matches into three sets — both her recent losses went the full distance — but her inability to close them out is the concern. That Samsonova defeat saw her take the second set in a tiebreak before capitulating in the third.
The question is whether Joint's fighting spirit can earn her a set against a player of Svitolina's calibre. The Ukrainian's consistency and superior ranking suggest she'll control the tempo from the outset, but the Australian has shown enough resilience in recent outings to make the -1.5 line worth a second look. If Joint can replicate the form that troubled Samsonova early, she might force Svitolina to work through three sets. That said, the safer lean is towards the favourite covering the spread.
Tipped at $1.40 (1:18 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Carole Monnetlast 2
Sloane Stephenslast 5
Total games: will this one run long?
The total games line sits at 18.5, and the market has the under at slightly shorter odds than the over. To clear that number, we'd need a tight two-setter or any three-set contest. Fall short, and you're looking at a swift straight-sets finish with minimal resistance.
Svitolina's last five results offer a mixed bag. Her most recent win over Anisimova totalled 16 games (6-2, 6-4), comfortably under the line. The Anastasia Potapova encounter on August 7th was even quicker — 12 games (6-1, 6-1). But that August 5th three-setter ballooned to 31 games, well over the line. Joint's recent matches have leaned longer: the Samsonova loss tallied 28 games (5-7, 7-6, 2-6), and her July 31st defeat hit 27 games.
With no head-to-head history to draw an average from, we're relying on the rhythm each player brings. If Svitolina comes out firing as she did against Potapova, this could be a brisk affair that sails under 18.5 games. But if Joint digs in and forces tiebreaks or extended sets — as she has in her last two outings — the over becomes live. The under feels the safer play, banking on the Ukrainian's class to keep this short and sharp.
Tipped at $1.95 (1:18 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 18.5.
Hit rate vs 18.5
The verdict
Everything points to a comfortable Svitolina victory. She's in peak form, ranked ninth in the world, and coming off four consecutive wins. Joint is ranked 72nd, carrying a season win rate of just 30 per cent, and has dropped her last two starts. The Australian's lack of firepower against top-tier opponents leaves her with precious little ammunition to trouble the Ukrainian.
The match-winner market offers little value given the price, but the sets handicap and total games lines present angles worth exploring. If you fancy Joint to scrape a set through sheer persistence, the +1.5 start is there. If you think Svitolina will blow through in straight sets, the under on games makes sense. Either way, the smart money is on the Ukrainian to advance without too much fuss.