Ostapenko v Mertens tips: Repeat or revenge in third-round clash

Jelena Ostapenko and Elise Mertens served up a classic the last time they met—three sets, two tiebreaks, and a 4–6 6–2 6–2 win to the Latvian in October 2019. Now they're back at it in the third round on Monday, 2:00 pm AEDT, and both punters arrive in winning form after battling through tight second-round encounters on Saturday.

Ostapenko sits 32nd in the rankings with a 23-19 season ledger; Mertens is 19th on a more efficient 31-19 record. The Belgian is the $1.54 favourite on the head-to-head board, with Ostapenko out at $2.50. No price movement has been recorded, so we're reading the market as it stands—and the story of their recent form tells us why it's tight.

Who will win?

Ostapenko is coming off a hard-fought win over Paula Badosa, posting a 7–6 7–5 scoreline on Saturday. Before that, she dropped a straight-sets defeat away to Taylah Preston (1–6 4–6) on the 24th of September, sandwiched around a win over Anastasia Zakharova (6–4 6–1). The form line over the last five reads three wins, two losses—a mixed bag, but the most recent result is a W.

Mertens also won her last start, defeating Katie Volynets 6–4 7–6 on Saturday in an away match. Before that, she lost at home to Naomi Osaka (2–6 6–1) on the 8th of August, then won a three-setter against TBD (6–3 6–6 6–4) on the 6th. Her season win percentage is 62 compared to Ostapenko's 55, and the career ledger tilts even more in the Belgian's favour—331-213 (61 per cent) against 312-234 (57 per cent).

The head-to-head history is razor-thin: one meeting, decided by the third-set tiebreak in Ostapenko's favour. That was seven years ago, both have evolved, and recent form suggests Mertens has the steadier hand. The market agrees—$1.54 is a firm short quote—but Ostapenko's power game and that 2019 result keep her in the conversation. Our tennis predictions lean towards the favourite here: Mertens has the higher ranking, the better season record, and just edged a tight two-setter herself last start, showing she can win the close ones.

Sets Handicap

The line market has Mertens giving Ostapenko a 1.5-set start. That means backing Mertens at -1.5 sets ($2.35) requires a straight-sets win; Ostapenko +1.5 sets ($1.55) cashes if she wins the match or forces a third set.

Both of their last starts went the distance—Ostapenko won 7–6 7–5, Mertens 6–4 7–6—so recent history says we're in for another battle. The 2019 head-to-head needed three sets and two tiebreaks. Mertens is the better player on paper this season, but Ostapenko's game style (big hitting, momentum swings) makes her dangerous even when she's behind. The $1.55 on Ostapenko +1.5 sets looks the value pick—she's shown she can hang with anyone over two frames, and this should be tight.

Total Games

The total is set at 21.5 games. Their only previous meeting produced 22 games (4–6 6–2 6–2), just nudging over that line. Both recent wins were competitive: Ostapenko's 7–6 7–5 tallied 24 games, Mertens' 6–4 7–6 came to 23 games.

If this goes three sets—and the form suggests it might—we're looking comfortably over. Even a tight two-setter (7–6 7–6) lands at 26 games. The under case needs a convincing straight-sets result, and neither player has shown that dominance lately. The over at $1.85 feels the safer side given the head-to-head precedent and their recent form lines.