Kostyuk v Stephens tips: Rematch looms after August thriller

World No.11 Marta Kostyuk will take on former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the Second Round on Thursday, 3 Sept at 4:00 am AEST, barely three weeks after the pair produced a gripping three-set contest in August. Kostyuk prevailed 7 7–5 5 in that meeting, but the American has since bounced back with a confidence-building win and punters have taken notice — Stephens has firmed from 10.2 into 7.5 on the head-to-head board, while Kostyuk has drifted from 1.05 out to 1.09.

The Ukrainian brings a 34-8 season record to the court and sits comfortably inside the world's top dozen, but her most recent outing was a chastening loss to Iga Swiatek on 9 August, going down 6 1 2–3 6 6 in a match where the world No.1 was simply a class above. Before that setback, she'd strung together wins over Madison Keys and another opponent in the lead-up, showing the kind of firepower that has delivered two titles this year. Stephens, meanwhile, arrives on a 7-11 win-loss ledger for the season — a far cry from the heights that once saw her reach world No.3 — but her last start was a tidy straight-sets victory over Clara Tauson on 1 September, and she'll draw belief from the fact she pushed Kostyuk all the way in their most recent clash.

Can Stephens spring the upset?

The head-to-head is about as thin as they come — one match, one winner, and plenty of theatre. Kostyuk edged that August thriller, but the scoreline tells the story of a contest that could have swung either way. The American has won three of her last five overall, mixing in that loss to Kostyuk and a comprehensive defeat to Mananchaya Sawangkaew, but the two wins either side of the Kostyuk loss suggest her ball-striking is finding rhythm again.

Kostyuk's form line reads two wins and a loss across her last three, with the Swiatek defeat a blip against arguably the best player on the planet rather than evidence of a slide. Her season numbers — 34 wins from 42 matches — paint the picture of a player operating at a level Stephens can only dream of replicating in 2026. The Ukrainian's current rank of 11 and two titles this year underline the gulf in class on paper, and the market has her as a prohibitive favourite despite the recent drift.

Those tennis predictions are reflected in the head-to-head prices: Kostyuk opened at 1.05 and has eased slightly to 1.09, while Stephens has come in from 10.2 to 7.5. The firming on the American suggests some punters see value in her recent uptick and the tight nature of their last meeting, but the overall picture still leans heavily towards the Ukrainian. Coming off a win against Tauson, Stephens will take the court with renewed self-belief, but overcoming a player of Kostyuk's calibre — especially one who knows how to close out tight matches against her — remains a significant ask.

Set handicap yarn

The Sets market has Kostyuk laying 1.5 sets at 1.4, with Stephens getting the 1.5-set start at 2.95. That line has also seen movement in the past 24 hours: Kostyuk drifted from 1.35 to 1.4, while Stephens firmed from 3.2 into 2.95. The American's price shortening mirrors the head-to-head move and points to genuine market support for the notion she can at least keep this competitive.

Their August meeting went the full three sets, and while Kostyuk ultimately had enough in the tank to close it out, Stephens pushed her to a pair of tight frames. The former Grand Slam champion's ability to win a set against the Ukrainian is hardly far-fetched — she's done it before, and her last outing showed enough polish to suggest she can make Kostyuk work for every game. The firming on Stephens +1.5 sets reflects that logic, though punters backing the Ukrainian to cover the line will point to the class gap and the fact Kostyuk has won two titles this season by consistently finding ways to win the sets that matter.

Games total leans short

The Total Games line sits at 19.5, with the over drifting from 1.9 out to 2.15 and the under firming from 1.9 into 1.7. That market move tells a clear story: punters expect a shorter match than the bookmaker's opening line anticipated. Their most recent head-to-head produced a combined games tally that would have comfortably sailed over this number, but the movement suggests the market now leans towards a more one-sided affair.

Kostyuk's recent form includes that heavy loss to Swiatek, a match where she won only nine games across three sets, though that was against a player operating on a different plane. Stephens' last outing saw her dispatch Tauson in straight sets, winning 11 games in the process, while her loss to Sawangkaew was a three-set marathon. The firming on the under hints at a view that Kostyuk will assert her superiority early and often, potentially closing this out in straights without the extended rallies and tight games that pushed their August clash deep into three sets. If the Ukrainian clicks from the opening game and Stephens struggles to find the same spark she had last month, 19.5 games starts to look generous.