Marta Kostyuk will be eager to bounce back when she faces Sofia Kenin in the Second Round on Monday morning at 7:05 am AEST. The Ukrainian world No. 11 stumbled last start against Iga Swiatek — a straight-sets reverse that snapped a two-match winning streak — and now she confronts a familiar foe looking to settle an old score.
Kenin, currently ranked No. 118, arrives on the back of a gutsy three-set win over Eva Lys last Saturday. That victory snapped a three-match losing run for the American, who has endured a tough 5–15 year-to-date. The pair have met just once before — back in February 2025, when Kenin prevailed in three tight sets — so the Ukrainian will be out to even the ledger and rediscover the rhythm that carried her to two titles this season.
Who wins the match?
Kostyuk has been the far more consistent player in 2026, posting a 30–7 win–loss record and banking two titles along the way. Her 81 per cent win rate this year tells the tale: when she's on, she's formidable. Coming off that loss to Swiatek, the Ukrainian will be determined to reset quickly. Before that setback she'd strung together wins over Madison Keys and another opponent, both in straight sets, showing the kind of ruthless efficiency that has her knocking on the door of the top ten.
Kenin's season has been a struggle by comparison. At 5–15, she's won just a quarter of her matches in 2026, and her last five outings paint a grim picture: three losses away from home before that recent win over Lys. The American has a career winning percentage of 53 per cent, but this year the wins have been few and far between. Her ranking has slipped to No. 118, a long way from her career-best No. 4.
When these two met in February 2025, Kenin edged a tight three-setter on hard court. The head-to-head stands at 1–0 in the American's favour, but that result feels like ancient history given the gulf in current form. Kostyuk has been playing deep into events all year; Kenin has been bowing out early. The head-to-head market reflects that reality, with Kostyuk a very short favourite and Kenin out at long odds.
The Ukrainian's class and consistency should shine through here. She's won 30 matches this season, Kenin just five. Our tennis predictions lean firmly toward the higher-ranked player to claim revenge and advance.
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Head-to-head context
0–1
Marta Kostyuk vs Sofia Kenin
Set Handicap: can Kenin stay close?
The Set Handicap is pitched at 1.5 sets, with Kostyuk required to win in straight sets to cover. Given the form chasm between these two, that line feels generous to the American. Kostyuk won both her matches before the Swiatek loss in straight sets, and even against the world No. 1 she managed to take a set. Kenin's recent three-setter against Lys showed she can grind, but that opponent was ranked well outside the top 100.
Kostyuk has the firepower and the match fitness to put this one away in two. Kenin's 5–15 record suggests she's struggling to find rhythm, and backing the Ukrainian to cover the 1.5-set line looks a solid play for punters willing to lay a bit more juice on the favourite.
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Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Marta Kostyuklast 5
Sofia Keninlast 5
Total Games: a quick finish beckons
The Total Games line is set at 18.5. Kostyuk's recent matches have been crisp affairs when she's in control — her wins over Keys and her other opponent were straight-set scorelines that wouldn't have stretched deep into the twenties on the games tally. The only time she went the distance recently was against Swiatek, a match that featured a third-set tiebreak.
Kenin's win over Lys went three sets and likely pushed well over the line, but that was against a lower-ranked player who managed to hang around. Against a top-15 opponent firing on all cylinders, the American may not have the tools to extend rallies or force multiple breaks. If Kostyuk comes out sharp and wraps this up in straight sets, the under looks the value play here.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 18.5.
Hit rate vs 18.5
The yarn
This is a tale of two seasons. Kostyuk has been one of the form players on tour, racking up wins and climbing the rankings with a blend of aggression and court craft. Kenin, once a Grand Slam champion, has slipped into a rebuilding phase, her ranking tumbling and her confidence wavering. The February head-to-head win will give the American a flicker of hope, but form lines don't lie, and right now the Ukrainian is streets ahead.
Kostyuk will be hungry to avenge that lone defeat and to put the Swiatek loss behind her. Kenin will be scrapping for every game, but the class gap feels too wide. Expect the higher-ranked player to impose her will early and cruise to a straight-sets triumph. For punters, the favourite looks rock-solid, the set handicap a logical extension, and the under on total games a tidy way to play a mismatch.