WTA first round tips: Andreeva looks to bounce back against Tjen

Two players nursing fresh wounds meet in the WTA first round when world number 5 Mirra Andreeva takes on Indonesia's Janice Tjen at 6:00 am AEST on Wednesday morning. Both are coming off defeats, but the Russian brings a hefty ranking advantage — Tjen sits 31 places below at 36 — and a head-to-head ledger that tilts firmly her way.

Andreeva has already banked three titles this year from a 40–13 record, a 75 per cent win rate that underscores a consistent campaign. Tjen's season tells a scratchier story: 15–22, a 41 per cent strike rate, and no silverware. The question isn't whether Andreeva is favourite — the bookies have that nailed at short odds — but how wide the margin might run and whether the total-games line offers a smarter angle than backing the Russian at quotes that barely flicker.

Who will win?

Andreeva's last start was a disappointment — she fell 6–0, 2–4, 6–6 to Marta Kostyuk on 19 August in what must have been a retirement or a scoreline transcription puzzle, but a loss all the same. Before that hiccup she had strung together wins over Tjen herself (6–0, 7–1, 6–0 on 18 August) and Oleksandra Oliynykova (6–0, 6–1, 0 on 16 August), both at home. Her last-five ledger reads three wins, two losses, with the wobble against Leylah Fernandez on 8 August (1–6, 4–6, 6) another reminder that the Russian can be vulnerable when the rhythm deserts her.

Tjen comes in off an even bleaker run. Her most recent outing on 4 August saw her lose 6–5, 7–0, 7–0 to Liudmila Samsonova, and the two matches before that yielded another defeat and a solitary win over Rebecca Sramkova. One win from her last three starts paints a picture of a player scrambling for traction, and the only time these two met this month — barely a fortnight ago — Andreeva dismantled Tjen in straight sets without dropping more than a game per frame.

That head-to-head result is the loudest data point on offer. Andreeva won 6–0, 7–1, 6–0, a scoreline that suggests Tjen had no answers and little time to find them. The Indonesian holds a 1–0 edge in the all-time h2h ledger according to her season stats, but that same field shows Andreeva with a 1–0 record on hard courts, which squares with the August drubbing. The rankings gulf — 128 career wins and a peak of world number 5 for Andreeva versus 25 career wins and a high of 35 for Tjen — reinforces the mismatch, and the market reflects it: Andreeva is a very short favourite, and no price movement over the past 24 hours suggests punters see this as anything but a formality.

For those chasing tennis betting tips, the head-to-head price offers little juice, but it does offer a high-probability anchor if you're building a multi or simply want the chalk. Tjen's best hope is that Andreeva carries the mental bruise from the Kostyuk result and gifts a set through distraction, but the Russian's three-from-five record and superior all-surface win rate suggest she'll find her level quickly.

Can Tjen keep it close on the sets line?

The sets line has Andreeva laying 1.5 sets, which means she must win in straight frames for that selection to collect. Tjen gets the same start in the opposite direction — she can lose 2–1 and still cover. The August meeting ended 2–0 to Andreeva with games scores that barely registered resistance (6–0, 7–1, 6–0 suggests a third set was never required, and the scoreline implies a bagel-and-breadstick shellacking across two frames). That result alone makes the case for the favourite to sweep again.

Andreeva's last five include two straight-sets wins at home (against Tjen and Oliynykova) and two defeats that went the distance or retired mid-match, plus the Fernandez loss that lasted two sets. Tjen's recent form shows she's been pushed to three sets twice in her last three (the Samsonova loss and an earlier defeat), with her lone win coming in straight sets over Sramkova. Neither player has a dominant pattern of quick kills or grinding three-setters, but the class gap tilts the probability toward another Andreeva steamroll.

If you're weighing the line, remember Tjen managed just one game across two sets last time out. For her to pinch a set here she'd need Andreeva to serve poorly or lose focus entirely — possible after the Kostyuk stumble, but the Russian's 75 per cent year-to-date win rate suggests lapses are the exception. The sets line offers better value than the head-to-head price if you believe the script will repeat, but it leaves no room for a competitive third set.

Total games: is this a quick finish or a scrap?

The total is set at 19.5 games, and the August encounter offers a neat template: 6–0, 7–1, 6–0 adds to 19 games across two sets (Tjen won just one game in total, so the match finished under that line comfortably if you count only completed frames). If Andreeva wins 6–2, 6–2 the total lands on 16 games; 6–3, 6–4 gets you to 19; 6–4, 7–5 pushes over the line at 22. A competitive three-setter — say 6–4, 4–6, 6–3 — clocks 23 games and sails over.

Tjen's recent results skew toward longer matches: the Samsonova loss went deep, as did the earlier three-set defeat. Andreeva's last-five ledger includes the Kostyuk match (which appears to have been a retirement or irregularity given the 6–0, 2–4, 6–6 scoreline) and a pair of tidy straight-sets wins. The question is whether Tjen can force enough service holds to drag frames into the back end of the scoreboard, or whether Andreeva's superior baseline game will break her down early in both sets.

The under case rests on the August precedent and Andreeva's ability to dominate service returns, but it requires Tjen to fold quickly again. The over case needs just one competitive set — Tjen holding serve more often, Andreeva dropping a couple of games on her own racquet — and suddenly you're in 6–4, 6–4 territory, which lands comfortably over 19.5. Given Tjen's recent tendency to go the distance when she loses and the potential for Andreeva to carry some mental static from her last start, the over has a case if you expect anything less than a repeat drubbing.