WTA First Round tips: Bartunkova hunts redemption after Mertens heartbreak

Wednesday morning at 8:00 am AEST, world No. 34 Nikola Bartunkova squares off against Egypt's Mayar Sherif (ranked 52) in the first round of the WTA tour. Neither player arrives in pristine form — both are licking wounds from their most recent outings — but the market has drawn a firm line in the sand, pricing Bartunkova as an overwhelming favourite despite the sting of her last-start stumble.

The Czech right-hander has climbed to a career-high ranking of 34 this season, posting an 18–12 year-to-date record and banking three wins from her last five starts. Sherif, meanwhile, has strung together a tidy 9–5 ledger in 2026 with a title to her name, though her overall career win rate of 38 per cent tells a story of hard yards on tour. The two have never met — their head-to-head ledger sits at 0–0 across all surfaces — so Wednesday's duel will write the first chapter of what could become a burgeoning rivalry.

Who will win?

Bartunkova's last outing on 29 August was a gut-punch: a 6–4, 2–6, 6–1 loss on the road to Elise Mertens that snapped a two-match winning streak. Before that stumble, the 34th-ranked Czech had rolled through Darja Vidmanova (6–6, 6–4, 7–3) and En Shuo Liang (6–7, 6–7, 5–4) on home soil, showing she can grind out tight matches when the scoreboard refuses to cooperate. Earlier in August she fell to Amanda Anisimova (6–0, 4–6, 6–3) but bounced back immediately with a straight-sets dismantling of Bianca Andreescu (7–6, 5–4). That run of three wins in five tells the punters she's capable of dusting herself off and coming again.

Sherif's form line is thinner but not without promise. Her most recent outing on 24 August was a deflating 3–4, 6–6 away loss to Oleksandra Oliynykova, ending a three-match winning run that had seen her claim scalps including Paula Badosa Gibert, Elsa Jacquemot, and Simona Waltert — all on home turf in late July. The Egyptian's year-to-date win percentage of 64 per cent is tidy, but her career numbers (48–80, 38 per cent) suggest she's still building the consistency required to trouble higher-ranked opponents on a regular basis.

With no previous meetings to lean on, the market has done the heavy lifting: Bartunkova is quoted heavily odds-on to claim the victory, while Sherif sits out at longer odds. The Czech's superior ranking, stronger career win rate (56 per cent vs 38 per cent), and recent ability to bounce back from setbacks all point toward a narrow path for the underdog. Bartunkova may be smarting from that Mertens defeat, but her three-from-five record and home-court wins over quality opposition suggest she's got the class edge here.

Sets Handicap

The Sets Handicap has Bartunkova laying 1.5 sets — in other words, she needs a straight-sets victory to cover, while Sherif collects if she claims even a single set. The scorelines from Bartunkova's last five starts reveal a player who regularly goes the distance: three of her five matches required a deciding set, including both her wins over Vidmanova and Liang. When she loses, she tends to drop the decider (Mertens, Anisimova), but when she wins, she's often forced to the brink before sealing the deal.

Sherif's recent form shows similar tight margins: her three-match winning streak in late July all went to decisive sets, with game scores like 7–6, 6–6, 7–4 and 5–6, 7–7, 4–6 suggesting she's more than capable of pushing higher-ranked opponents into deep water. Given both players have shown a knack for extending matches, and considering Sherif's year-to-date win rate sits at a respectable 64 per cent, the 1.5-set line feels like it's asking a lot of the favourite. Bartunkova's quality should see her home, but expecting a clean sweep against a player who's claimed a title this season might be optimistic.

Total Games

The Total Games line is set at 20.5, with the market leaning slightly toward the under. A glance at the recent form lines for both players reveals a pattern of marathon encounters: Bartunkova's wins over Vidmanova (6–6, 6–4, 7–3) and Liang (6–7, 6–7, 5–4) both stretched well into the 20-plus game territory, while her loss to Mertens (6–4, 2–6, 6–1) clocked in at 19 games. Sherif's three-match winning streak in July similarly produced totals north of 20 games in each outing, with her victory over Badosa Gibert (7–6, 6–6, 7–4) alone tallying 26 games.

With no head-to-head history to guide us, the best proxy is the playing styles on show: both are right-handers who've demonstrated an ability to stay competitive deep into matches, and neither has a reputation for blowing opponents off the court in quick succession. Given the form evidence points to closely contested sets and frequent tie-breaks, the over on 20.5 games looks to have merit. If Sherif can claim even one set — as the Sets Handicap discussion suggests is plausible — we're likely sailing past the line with room to spare.