WTA First Round tips: Maria faces uphill battle against higher-ranked Ostapenko

Two players hunting redemption collide on Wednesday morning when Tatjana Maria squares off against Jelena Ostapenko in the opening round of the WTA tournament, with the first ball due at 6:00 am AEST. Both combatants stumbled in their most recent outings, setting up a fascinating first-rounder between a world number 83 battling to find consistency and a top-35 operator who knows how to win on the big stage.

Maria arrives ranked 80th in the live standings with a 17-23 record this season, while Ostapenko sits 29th on the ladder and carries a 21-17 year-to-date ledger. The Latvian's career résumé (310-232, nine titles) towers over the German's (170-267, four titles), yet form has been patchy for both. The head-to-head yarn adds intrigue: these two last met in July 2022, when Maria prevailed in a three-set thriller on grass, and the veteran holds a 2-0 all-time edge over Ostapenko — both wins coming on the lawns, with no hard-court or clay meetings on record.

Who will win?

Maria's recent run reads two wins from five, the latest a straight-sets defeat to Diana Shnaider on 15 August. Before that loss she had posted a gutsy home victory over Dayana Yastremska (6-1, 6-2 on 13 August), but sandwiched either side of that win are defeats to Caty McNally and an opponent listed only as TBD. The German's last-five sequence shows more red than black, and her 43 per cent win rate this season underscores the challenge of breaking through at this level.

Ostapenko's form line tells a similar tale of struggle. She too exits a loss — a straight-sets reversal against Magdalena Frech on 15 August — and has dropped three of her past five starts. The defeats include a bagel set against an unnamed opponent (0-6, 4-6 on 5 August) and a tight loss to Aryna Sabalenka in early July. The Latvian did collect back-to-back wins at home in late June and early July, dismantling Antonia Ruzic and Harriet Dart, but those victories now feel a lifetime ago given the recent skid.

The July 2022 grass-court meeting offers one thread: Maria edged a marathon three-setter (5-7, 7-5, 7-5), suggesting she can hang with Ostapenko in a scrap. Yet that was four years ago on a surface neither is playing today, and the current rankings gap of fifty-odd spots tells a more immediate story. The head-to-head market reflects that gap, with Ostapenko priced at 1.65 and Maria out at 2.25. For all Maria's historical success in this match-up, Ostapenko's superior career win percentage (57 per cent to 39) and higher ranking make her the logical favourite, even if neither player arrives brimming with confidence. Our tennis betting tips lean towards the Latvian to prevail, banking on class and pedigree to outweigh recent wobbles.

Sets Handicap: can Maria keep it competitive?

The Sets line has Maria starting at +1.5 sets, meaning she needs only to claim one set (or win outright) for that selection to salute. Ostapenko at -1.5 sets requires a straight-sets victory. Given both players are coming off defeats and Maria has troubled Ostapenko before, the German's ability to steal a set looms as a live proposition.

Maria's two home appearances in her last five yielded a win and a loss, but the win over Yastremska was emphatic in the second set (6-1). Ostapenko's recent form includes a pair of home wins where she dropped just two games across four sets, yet on the road she has been far less assured. If Maria can lift her service game and lean on home-court energy, forcing a third set is well within reach. The +1.5 sets start offers a cushion that suits a player with nothing to lose and a historical edge in this rivalry.

Total Games: under the spotlight

The Total Games line sits at 21.5, with both over and under quoted at 1.90. The lone head-to-head meeting saw a combined 37 games, well clear of this mark, but that three-set epic may not be the best guide given current form. Maria's recent matches have varied wildly in length: her loss to Shnaider went three sets, while her win over Yastremska was a brisk two. Ostapenko's straight-sets defeat to Frech clocked in at just 15 games, and her bagel-set loss in early August was similarly swift.

If Ostapenko finds her groove early and Maria's serve falters, a quick two-setter could slide under 21.5 games. Conversely, if Maria digs in and forces a decider, the count climbs rapidly. The pack offers no combined-scoring average to lean on, but the volatility in both players' recent results suggests the under carries appeal should the higher-ranked player impose herself from the opening game. Punters chasing the under will be hoping for an Ostapenko performance closer to her dominant home outings than her recent road struggles.