WTA Second Round tips: Rybakina seeks revenge after March setback

Taylor Townsend and Elena Rybakina meet in the WTA Second Round on Monday morning at 3:00 am AEST, with the world number two carrying a score to settle. When these two last crossed paths in March 2024, Townsend stunned the Kazakh star in a tight three-setter — but the gulf in rankings and recent form suggests a very different yarn this time around.

Townsend sits at 94 in the current standings, having posted an 11-9 season record. Rybakina, meanwhile, holds down second spot globally with 8056 points and has built a formidable 39-12 year-to-date ledger. The American's last five reads three wins in her last five outings, but two of those losses came in close three-set battles with Belinda Bencic. Rybakina, in contrast, has reeled off three straight victories — most recently a comfortable straight-sets dismissal of Liudmila Samsonova on 10 August.

The h2h ledger is slender — one match, one Townsend triumph — but rankings and title hauls tell a broader story. Rybakina has claimed thirteen career trophies, including two this season, and owns a 72% career win rate. Townsend's 46% career mark and zero titles hint at the uphill climb she faces against elite opposition.

Who will win?

On paper, this looks a mismatch. Rybakina arrives on a three-match winning streak, dropping only one set across those outings. Her most recent outing saw her dismantle Samsonova in straight sets without fuss. Townsend, coming off a three-set win over Maria Camila Osorio Serrano on 14 August, has shown she can scrap — but her last five also includes back-to-back losses to Bencic, both going the distance. Stringing together wins against ranked opposition has proven tougher than the occasional upset suggests.

The pair's only prior meeting — that March 2024 clash won by Townsend 6–3, 7–6(4) — looms as an outlier rather than a form guide. Since then, Rybakina has racked up 39 wins from 51 matches and defended her top-tier status. Townsend's 11-9 record reflects a player scrapping to stay relevant rather than threatening the upper echelons. The market reflects that reality: Rybakina is a heavily backed favourite, and rightly so. The Kazakh's consistency and power game should see her reverse that March result and move through to the next round without drama.

Set Handicap

The Set Handicap line is set at 1.5 sets, with Rybakina laying that start. Given her recent dominance — three wins on the trot, all wrapped up in straight or near-straight fashion — backing her to cover feels the sharper play. Townsend's last three home outings include a straight-sets defeat to Bencic, and while she fought back to take a deciding set against Osorio Serrano, that comeback spirit may not stretch to troubling a player of Rybakina's calibre over three frames.

Rybakina's 76% win rate this season and her ability to close out matches efficiently make the -1.5 sets proposition appealing for punters chasing value beyond the short head-to-head price.

Total Games

The Total Games line sits at 21.5, with even money either side. Rybakina's recent form suggests brisk, clinical wins — her last outing against Samsonova was wrapped up in 20 games, and the Ann Li match totalled just 18. Townsend, meanwhile, has been involved in longer affairs: her Osorio Serrano win ran to 22 games, and both Bencic losses stretched to 26 games each.

With Rybakina's power game likely to dictate terms and Townsend's ability to extend rallies or force tiebreaks uncertain against this class of opponent, the under feels the more natural landing spot. A straight-sets Rybakina win at 6-3, 6-4 or tighter would comfortably sneak under the 21.5 mark, and recent evidence points that way.