Colts v Cowboys tips: Dallas on road mission after Saints setback

The Indianapolis Colts welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Lucas Oil Stadium for a Monday morning clash that shapes as a test of contrasting fortunes. Kick-off is set for 5:00 am AEDT on Monday 9 November, with Dallas arriving as short-priced favourites despite dropping their most recent outing. The Cowboys sit 2-1 overall and carry a perfect 2-0 road record into this assignment, while Indianapolis remains winless through three starts and is yet to trouble the scoreboard in any meaningful way at home. The visitors are rated $1.38 to claim the points here, with the Colts out to $3.07 on their own deck.

Dallas come off a narrow 24–27 home loss to the New Orleans Saints on 29 August — a tight affair that snapped a two-game run but did little to dent confidence given the three-point margin. Before that setback the Cowboys thumped Arizona 34–13 on the road, underlining their credentials away from home. Indianapolis, meanwhile, dropped a 16–25 decision to Detroit on 30 August after being belted 6–34 by Atlanta a week earlier. Both defeats came at Lucas Oil Stadium, leaving the Colts 0-2 at home and scoreless where it counts: they've managed just 35 points across three games while conceding 72. The ladder reflects that chasm — Dallas fourth in the NFC with a +28 differential, Indianapolis thirteenth in the AFC at -37.

Who will win?

The Cowboys' 2-1 record and dominant road form make them the logical pick here, and the market agrees. Their two wins have both come away from home, and they've shown the ability to put scoreboard pressure on — 75 points for across three outings works out at 25 per game. Indianapolis have averaged fewer than twelve points per start and have been leaking at the other end, conceding an average of 24 per outing. The Colts' two home defeats were decided by nine and 28 points respectively, underlining how far they are from competing at this level.

There is no head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so the form lines and ladder positions tell the story. Dallas sit fourth in the NFC playoff race; Indianapolis are thirteenth in the AFC and two-and-a-half games adrift. The Cowboys' only blemish was a three-point home loss to a quality Saints outfit, while the Colts have been outclassed in both their home starts. The visitors' perfect road record (2-0) against a winless home side (0-2) is the headline angle, and the $1.38 quote reflects that gulf. For our nfl predictions this week, Dallas are the clear play at head-to-head odds.

Can the Colts cover the line?

The line market has the Cowboys laying 5.5 points at $1.90 either way, which feels tight given the respective form guides. Indianapolis have lost their two home games by nine and 28 points — an average losing margin of 18.5 — while Dallas won their two road assignments by margins that suggest they can cover a short spread. The Cowboys' 34–13 win over Arizona was a 21-point triumph, more than enough to clear 5.5. Their only loss came by three points at home to a strong New Orleans side, hardly a red flag for punters backing them here.

The Colts' offensive output at home has been anaemic: 16 points against Detroit, six against Atlanta. If that trend continues, Dallas will coast past the line. Indianapolis would need to find 20-plus points and keep the Cowboys under 25 to threaten the 5.5-point buffer, and nothing in their home form suggests they're capable of either task. The visitors' road record and scoring power make them the value side of the line, even at a short price.

The yarn

This one has the feel of a get-well assignment for Dallas after the narrow Saints defeat. They'll want to remind everyone that their road credentials are genuine, and they face a Colts outfit that has been soundly beaten at home in every start. Indianapolis need to find answers quickly — their 0-2-1 overall record and winless home ledger point to a side struggling on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys' ability to score (25 per game) against a Colts defence leaking 24 per start shapes as the decisive mismatch.

For punters, the head-to-head odds of $1.38 for Dallas leave little margin for error, but the Cowboys -5.5 at $1.90 offers a better angle given the form disparity. The Colts have been outscored by double digits in both home games, and there's little to suggest they'll suddenly find 20-plus points here. Dallas arrive as road warriors with something to prove after that Saints stumble, and Lucas Oil Stadium shapes as the perfect venue to get back on track.