Patriots vs Packers tips: Green Bay on a roll, New England reeling

Week 9 of the NFL season brings a Monday morning showdown when the New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers at Mon 9 Nov, 8:25 am AEDT. The Packers arrive riding a two-match winning run and sitting pretty at 2-1 in the National Football Conference, while the Patriots are licking their wounds after a 24-point thumping in Cleveland last start. The home side's 1-1-1 record includes a tie at home and a loss on the road — they'll need to rediscover the form that saw them edge Philadelphia 24–21 a fortnight ago if they're to trouble a Packers outfit that's been piling on the points.

Green Bay have averaged 37.5 points across their last two outings — a 33–13 road win over Denver and then a narrow 42–38 home triumph against Arizona in their most recent start on 29 August. The Patriots, meanwhile, were held to just 13 points in that Cleveland loss after posting 24 in their only win of the campaign. The visitors' differential sits at +5 for the season; New England are -21, and the scoreboard tells the tale. Our nfl picks dig into where this contest might land and whether the visitors can maintain their momentum on the road.

Who will win Patriots vs Packers?

The Packers are the $2.20 visitors on the head-to-head board, with New England at $1.68 to defend home turf. Green Bay's 2-1 overall mark and 1-1 road record contrast with the Patriots' 1-1-1 ledger, which includes that solitary away defeat and a 1-0-1 split at home. Coming off a loss — and a heavy one at that, 13–37 to the Browns — New England have questions to answer about an attack that managed just 13 points in their most recent outing.

Green Bay, on the other hand, are coming off consecutive wins. Their last start saw them hold off Arizona 42–38 at home on 29 August, backing up a 33–13 road win in Denver the week prior. That's 75 points across two games and a confidence level that should travel well. The Patriots' lone win this season was a three-point home squeaker over Philadelphia on 23 August, so their home form isn't bulletproof — that tie on their 1-0-1 home split shows they can be held by the right opponent.

The visitors' ability to score in bunches — 42 and 33 in their last two — suggests they'll test a Patriots defence that conceded 37 last time out. With no head-to-head history provided in recent seasons, this contest comes down to current form and ladder position, and both favour the Packers. The $2.20 away price looks workable for a side averaging better than a touchdown more per game than their hosts across the last fortnight.

Can the Patriots cover the 2.5-point line?

The line market has New England laying 2.5 points at home — in other words, the Patriots need to win by three or more to cover, while Green Bay get a 2.5-point start. The home side's only win this season came by a three-point margin (24–21 v Philadelphia), and their most recent result was a 24-point loss. That's an average losing margin of 24 points in defeat and a three-point cushion in victory — hardly the profile of a side that covers small spreads with ease.

Green Bay's two wins came by margins of four points (42–38 v Arizona) and 20 points (33–13 v Denver). The narrower of those two was at home in their last start, suggesting they're capable of grinding out tight contests as well as blowing opponents away. Taking the 2.5-point start with the Packers allows them to lose by a field goal and still cover, or win outright and collect. Given the Patriots' struggles to score — 13 points in their most recent outing — and Green Bay's firepower, the visitors with the start shapes as the safer play on the line.